Summery Fourth of July holiday temps; update on rain chances

Western Minnesota has seen the most areas of rain so far this Sunday morning, with a few embedded thunderstorms.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms continues in the west Sunday afternoon and it also expands into parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. That shower and thunderstorm chance will linger into Sunday evening.

Sunday/Sunday night severe weather outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe weather Sunday and Sunday night in west-central Minnesota and part of southwestern Minnesota:

Sunday night lasts until 7 a.m. Monday in the SPC severe weather outlook.

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Sunday and Sunday night in the dark-green shaded area that covers much of Minnesota (including the the Twin Cities metro area) and a small part of west-central Wisconsin.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Overnight and Monday

A fairly organized area of showers and thunderstorms could sweep across Minnesota and western Wisconsin late in the overnight hours Sunday night and through Monday morning. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 1 a.m. Monday to 11 p.m. Monday:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night in southeastern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa plus northern Illinois:

Temperature trends

Sunday afternoon highs are expected to be in the 80s across most of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin. Highs in the 70s are on tap for much of north-central and northeastern Minnesota, with a a few 60s up along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Fourth of July highs will reach the 80s in southern and central Minnesota and most of western Wisconsin. The northern third of Minnesota will see mainly 70s, with some 60s near Lake Superior:

Dew points will be in the steamy 70s in roughly the southern half of Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening:

Back to forecast highs, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 80s on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, followed by upper 80s Friday.

Fourth of July climatology

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has posted interesting information about our Fourth of July weather.

Here’s an excerpt from their post:

Looking back at records dating to 1871 for the Twin Cities (1873 for temperature and 1903 for 7 PM dew point temperature), the average high and average low temperatures for Independence Day are 83 degrees F and 64 F, respectively. 2012 came in as the warmest July 4th on record, at 101 degrees, during an extremely warm early July. (link is external)The state record high for the date is 106 F, set in 1988 at Browns Valley. The highest 7 PM dew point for the date in the Twin Cities was 75 F, in 1986.

July 4th can be quite cool too. In 1967 the Twin Cities recorded a high temperature of just 58 degrees, which was the last time the July 4th high temperature failed to reach 70 degrees in the Twin Cities. The record low temperature for the date in the Twin Cities is 43 F, set in 1972. That same year, Tower, MN, recorded a low of 27 F, the state record for the 4th of July.

Their post also shows that it can be stormy:

Several of Minnesota’s most significant straight-line windstorms on record were on or near the 4th of July also, including the infamous Boundary Waters Blowdown of July 4, 1999, when 80-100 mph winds downed tens of millions of trees and stranded hundreds in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. Other convective windstorms with gusts of 100 mph or more stretched from the Lake Minnetonka area to the St. Croix River east of North Branch on July 3, 1983, and across the Brainerd, Mille Lacs, and Pine City areas on July 4th, 1977.

If you are interested, you can check the linked post for Fourth of July highs, lows and rainfall for each year dating back to the 1870s.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.