Turning warmer and muggier, and then hot

Labor Day rolls around at a time in the warm season that our weather begins drying out, thunderstorms become much less frequent and the odds of fair weather for a picnic or backyard cookout improve significantly. That’s how it has played out for the entire Labor Day weekend 2022. In contrast, this past Memorial Day was windy and humid with a statewide severe weather outbreak with hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.  The Fourth of July wasn’t quite so nasty but did include a line of strong thunderstorms that swept through the greater Twin Cities area and caused lightning damage to multiple homes.

By comparison, the persistent plume of clouds that blew in from Iowa Monday morning and have been slow to mix out as forecast merely gave us a mostly gray sky rather than a blue one well into the afternoon. Most of Minnesota warmed into the 70s, although the often-cooler North Shore remained in the 60s. The Twin Cities warmed into the upper 70s when the average high for this date is 77. Wheaton, Madison, Canby and Hallock in western Minnesota are among the locations that reached the low 80s.

Warmer, muggier Tuesday

Tuesday will be several degrees warmer than Monday and the dew point will climb a bit. High temperatures around the state should be from the upper 70s northeast to mostly 80s. The Twin Cities should have a high around 83.

Continued heating midweek

Heat from the Great Plains will continue to build eastward into Minnesota on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday should turn out to be the hottest day of the week with highs from the 80s north to the mid 90s in the southwest. It looks as though the Twin Cities could warm into the low 90s. The record high temperature for the Twin Cities on Thursday is 99 (1931).

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Cold front

A cold front from the northwest will then return cooler, more-seasonable temperatures for Friday and next weekend. Friday and Saturday could even be a little cooler than average.

Saturday's forecast high temperatures
Saturday's forecast high temperatures
NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Needed rain not coming soon

The upcoming week looks disappointingly dry. Scattered showers might break out on Friday and into Saturday behind the aforementioned cold front, but amounts are likely to be skimpy. Total forecast rainfall for the next week doesn’t look too promising with the best chance for at least some measurable rain in the northeastern and southeastern portions of the state. Farther afield, the southeastern U.S. seems likely to get repeated surges of swampy rain from the warm Gulf of Mexico.

7-day rain forecast through 7 p.m. next Monday
7-day rain forecast through 7 p.m. next Monday
NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Reheating next week?

After cooler temperatures for next weekend, forecast models are predicting a return to very warm temperatures next week. The 8-14 day temperature outlook for September 13-19 indicates the strong likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the middle of the country including Minnesota and surrounding states. The heat-stressed West looks like it will get significant thermal relief.

8-14 day temperature outlook for September 13-19
8-14 day temperature outlook for September 13-19
NOAA Climate Prediction Center