Heavy snowfall potential is there for much of Minnesota next week
A big, wet, sloppy storm is still aiming for Minnesota next week.
We’re on storm watch across Minnesota next week. First, we enjoy a relatively quiet and milder weekend. You can get that detailed forecast and see some of Friday’s snowfall totals in Ron Trenda’s weekend forecast post here.
Now let’s get onto the more “interesting” part of the forecast for the next week.
A big pacific storm will slam into California and the west this weekend. Parts of the high Sierra will pick up 3 to 6 feet of snow this weekend.
That’s great news for early-season snowpack in the Sierras. Most of the west is in severe (or worse) drought, and water supplies including the Colorado River are at critically low levels.
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That same storm will move through the Rockies and head toward the Upper Midwest next week. Let’s break it down, with what we know and don’t know at this early forecast point.
What we know (high confidence)
All major forecast models bring a strong low-pressure system into the Upper Midwest next Tuesday into Thursday.
This system will likely be very wet. Precipitable water within the storm will likely be 1 to 2 inches.
This storm will be slow-moving. That means prolonged precipitation for much of Minnesota is likely. That will increase storm total snow amounts where precipitation is all snow throughout the storm.
NOAA’s GFS model spins the system and associated precipitation types through Minnesota between next Tuesday and Thursday.
What we don’t know yet (lower confidence)
The precise storm track is still in question.
The freezing line (rain/ice/snow transition zone) appears likely to set up near the greater Twin Cities area next week. That would mean a mixed bag of possible rain, ice, sleet, and snow across southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities area.
The greatest uncertainty in precipitation type and eventual snowfall totals seems to favor the greater Twin Cities area and southern Minnesota.
So if current storm track and temperature profiles pan out, it looks like central and northern Minnesota could pick up a pile of snow. Right now the favored areas for the heaviest snowfall run from west-central Minnesota around Appleton and Morris, through Alexandria, St. Cloud, Brainerd, the Iron Range to Duluth, and the Noth Shore.
Again it’s early to be confident about snowfall totals. But it seems entirely possible to expect the peak snowfall with this system the exceed a foot of snow. And the early forecast models are suggestive that some snowfall totals at 20 inches are possible next week somewhere in central and northeast Minnesota.
Let’s see what the forecast models do over the weekend and Monday as the system cones ashore into the more dense surface data network across the western U.S.
Stay tuned. Next week could be lit.