Ice, snow, rain spreading across Minnesota through Tuesday night

Tuesday’s precipitation is just the first wave of moisture in this storm

hazards
Winter weather advisories, winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings (southwestern Minnesota) Tuesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Updated 9:45 a.m.

An icy, wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain is spreading across Minnesota Tuesday. Most snowfall Tuesday will be across central and western Minnesota. The snow fills in north and northeast into Wednesday with heavy snow for northeast Minnesota Wednesday. 

Ice, wintry mix spreads east and north Tuesday

Ice along with a mix of rain, sleet, and snow is the issue Tuesday morning in western and southwestern Minnesota. Several locations into northwestern Iowa and eastern South Dakota reported a coating of ice early Tuesday.

ice reports
Ice reports through early Tuesday morning
National Weather Service

The wintry mix of freezing rain, snow and rain will spread east and northeast through the morning into the afternoon Tuesday.

Temperatures in eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities are, and will be generally above freezing, meaning we’re likely to see a rain-sleet-snow mixture into the evening.

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precip Tues AM
Forecast precipitation early Tuesday through 6 a.m. Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Tuesday night into Wednesday most of the heavy snow will lift into northern and northeastern Minnesota where totals will really start to add up along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

In addition to the precipitation, gusty winds will be present Tuesday into Wednesday.

Most accumulating snowfall through Tuesday and Wednesday will be just north and west of the Twin Cities.

MN Snow 9a
Forecast snowfall through 6 p.m. Wednesday
National Weather Service

Snow will wrap back around the storm system and spread statewide Thursday into Friday and Saturday. That’s when the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota will see the bulk of snowfall accumulation.

Several or more inches of snowfall will be possible Thursday into Saturday. This is in addition to snow that falls Tuesday and Wednesday.

The science behind precipitation types

Tuesday will bring a variety of types of wintry precipitation. This is a result of different temperature layers at the surface and aloft. As warm air flows counterclockwise around an area of low pressure, it rises up and over the colder, dense air that lingers at the surface.

850 chart
A look at temperatures 4,000 feet up midday Tuesday with air flowing counterclockwise around the storm center to our southwest
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Precipitation starts as snow aloft, where it’s well below freezing but then can fall into a layer of warmer air, that’s above freezing. Depending on how deep that warm layer is, the precipitation can fall as sleet, freezing rain, or rain if it’s a deep enough warm layer.

precip types
A 3D view of how different air masses create different precipitation types on the edge of warm and cold air in a wintry system
National Weather Service

For example, this afternoon in the Twin Cities we’re expecting a mix of precipitation types, especially sleet as the warm layer will be thick enough to melt the snow, partially and then it will refreeze as it falls back into a cold layer.

forecast sounding
A vertical temperature profile forecast for 3 p.m. Tuesday shows different temperatures at different heights creating sleet over the Twin Cities area
College of DuPage weather lab