Latest storm brings rain turning to snow Thursday into Friday

Temperatures will fall through the day Thursday

Winter storm warnings northeast and winter weather advisories Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Updated 9:35 a.m.

Falling temperatures will allow morning rain showers to turn to snow in the afternoon and evening Thursday. Snow showers will linger into Friday. Winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings are posted across much of Minnesota.

Rain, snow mix turning to snow

Our latest storm system is bringing a mixed bag of precipitation starting as rain turns to snow through the day Thursday. By mid-afternoon the precipitation will be all snow for most.

precip THU 9
Forecast precipitation 9 a.m. Thursday through 7 p.m. Friday
College of DuPage weather lab

Temperatures will fall through the morning and afternoon allowing the changeover in precipitation type.

temps loop
Forecast temperatures 9 a.m. Thursday through 9 p.m.
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The above-freezing temperatures to start and wet surfaces will limit accumulations in the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota.

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The graphic below features outputs from two computer models, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model and the North American Mesoscale model. Each compares snowfall to what’s called net positive snow depth change — the impact on snow depth due to melting and compacting, which may be a more accurate representation of the snowfall you’ll see at the end of the event.

I think most of the Twin Cities area will see about 1 to 3 inches.

snowfall vs depth
Two computer models comparing forecast snowfall scenarios versus net change in snow depth (accounting for melting, compaction)
NOAA via pivotal weather

The heaviest snowfall totals will be around Duluth and northeastern Minnesota into Friday. Here’s the National Weather Service official forecast for snowfall, which I think is a bit on the high end for southern Minnesota:

MN totals
Forecast snowfall totals from the National Weather Service Thursday into Friday
National Weather Service

Snow showers will linger on and off into Friday, especially for northeastern Minnesota.

Colder behind the snow for Friday into the weekend

Behind the storm system will come some cold air. Watch for refreeze overnight Thursday into Friday as temperatures drop into the teens and single digits across Minnesota into early Friday.

thu nt
Forecast low temperatures Thursday night into early Friday
National Weather Service

Highs will only be in the 20s and even 10s in western Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

Fri high 9
Forecast high temperatures Friday
National Weather Service

Those readings are 10 to 20 degrees colder than normal for the dates.

Fri T anom
Forecast temperature anomalies (difference from normal) Friday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The coldest temperatures will come Saturday night as skies clear out. Parts of western Minnesota could be below zero with the rest of the state falling into the single digits to around 10 degrees for overnight lows.

sat low 9
Forecast low temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday
National Weather Service

There are signs of consistent mild air next week. If The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is to be believed, we could see our first 50-degree reading in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

Extended forecast range temperatures from NOAA's Global Forecast System model
WeatherBELL Analytics