Mild Sunday, with a shower chance; Several days with highs in the 70s this week
Update on river levels
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It was a sun-splashed Saturday afternoon across Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Our remaining snow cover is shrinking with each passing day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few metro area golf courses opening within a week or so.
The Saturday afternoon high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 66 degrees. That’s 13 degrees warmer than the average April 8 high temp in the Twin Cities. It was also the warmest Twin Cities high temperature since Nov. 10.
Even warmer temps are on tap next Tuesday through Thursday.
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Temperature trends
Sunday highs will range from 40s in the northwestern corner of Minnesota to 60s in the southeastern corner of Minnesota plus west-central and southwestern Wisconsin:
Parts of the Twin Cities metro area will reach the lower 60s.
Monday highs will be in the 60s from the the Twin Cities metro area through southern Minnesota and into west-central and southwestern Wisconsin:
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 70s on Tuesday, followed by upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and Thursday, then mid 70s Friday.
Sunday shower chance
An upper level disturbance could bring areas of showers to western Minnesota Sunday morning, with patchy showers spreading into portions of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. The Twin Cities metro area could see occasional patchy showers anytime between around noon and 7 p.m. on Sunday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 a.m. Sunday to 10 p.m. Sunday:
Rapid snowmelt will cause flooding in some areas
There’s deep snowpack in much of northern Minnesota and in portions of northwestern Wisconsin. Very warm temperatures in the coming days will cause snowmelt to intensify
The Duluth NWS office posted a spring flood outlook here.
The NWS also posted a hydrologic outlook for the green-shaded area on this map:
Here are details of the outlook:
Hydrologic Outlook MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051- 099-113-129-101930- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Duluth MN 221 PM CDT Sat Apr 8 2023 ...WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A MELTING SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK... Seasonably very warm temperatures spread from south to north Sunday through Wednesday and will lead to melting of the deep and primed snowpack in the Northland. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week and into next weekend sustaining a faster snow melt. Enhanced runoff from the melting snowpack is expected to start first in central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early next week and spread northward to the rest of northeast Minnesota by the middle of next week. Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and in low-lying and flood prone locations is possible next week across the Northland. If you live in an area that has previously experienced spring flooding impacts, expect to experience those problems again this year. The next update to this outlook is expected by 2:00 PM Monday, April 10, 2023.
Gauges track rising rivers
You can find info on river levels at various locations here.
This is how the linked map looked Saturday afternoon:
You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location. Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:
A rise of about 6 feet is expected at that location in the next 7 days, with additional rises likely beyond next weekend.
Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota:
A rise of about 7 feet is expected in the next week, with an additional substantial rise possible in the following week.
The March 20 flood outlook from the NWS showed the odds of the St . Croix River reaching major flood stage (89 feet) at Stillwater this spring:
Let’s hope we don’t get significant rainfall anytime soon.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.
