Hot week underway; widely scattered thunderstorms daily
This week’s showers and thunderstorms got underway early Tuesday morning. The heaviest rains fell in southwest Minnesota such as around Fairmont and Windom where totals of 1 to 3 inches were measured or estimated.
Most of the Twin Cities area got some welcome rain, but the official rain gauge at MSP airport picked up a scant 0.03 inches which barely wets the ground. My backyard rain gauge had a more successful morning as it measured 0.52 inches.
Afternoon instability and solar heating began kicking another round of scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon.
A few strong or severe storms possible
Thunderstorms are increasing as they track slowly to the northeast as we head into Tuesday evening. Most thunderstorms will be sub-severe, possibly with dime- or nickel-size hail. But isolated severe storms with larger hail one inch or more in diameter have been reported.
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The Storm Prediction Center has posted a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe weather from southwestern Minnesota through the central part of the state up to the Iron Range in the northeast into the night. Storms should weaken with the loss of daily heating.
Storms every day this week?
The rest of the week beginning on Wednesday should see widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon with the heating of the day.
Atmospheric dynamics will be weak, so heating along with an increase in available moisture will be the mechanism to get these storms to fire and last into the evening before fizzling as the heating wanes. Storms from Wednesday through the weekend are likely to be of the garden variety and unlikely to become severe.
Your location might not get any hit-and-miss showers or storms on some of these days. But it looks as though just about all of Minnesota and western Wisconsin are likely to get some rain.
The 5-day rainfall forecast through 7 p.m. on Sunday spreads the rain around Minnesota and Wisconsin. Some spots might end up with more than an inch of total rainfall if they get repeated storms.
Hot and a bit sticky for the rest of the week
High temperatures are likely to be mainly from the mid 80s to low 90s for most of Minnesota for the remainder of this week. The North Shore will be cooler. The Twin Cities should have highs reaching into the low 90s the next several days unless storms hold them down.
When will the heat break?
Next week should turn somewhat cooler, especially later in the week. The 8-14 day temperature outlook for June 6 to 12 calls for temperatures to try to get back closer to average at that time.
