Soaking rain chances increasing for Minnesota through this weekend
Multi-inch rainfall chances growing for the northern half of MInnesota
The best chance of rain in weeks is heading for much of Minnesota this weekend. It may not be enough to end the growing drought in most areas, but rainfall looks significant and meaningful in much of Minnesota.
Let’s break down the rainfall chances, coverage, timing and totals through the upcoming weekend.
The system
A weak cold front will slip eastward through MInnesota through Friday. Then, a slow-moving low-pressure system will edge through Minnesota this weekend.
The systems will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from Thursday night through Sunday. It won’t rain everywhere all the time, but several hours of rain are possible through this weekend.
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NOAA’s FV3 model below captures the essence of scattered showers and thunderstorms forming near the cold front Thursday night, then fading overnight and forming again Friday afternoon. The forecast model loop below runs between 6 p.m. Thursday and 6 p.m. Friday.
Then watch as a larger low-pressure system crawls across Minnesota this weekend. This system should produce more numerous showers and some potentially strong storms with locally heavy rainfall. NOAA’s GFS model below shows the trend for scattered rain and thunder this weekend. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Saturday and 1 p.m. Sunday.
Rainfall totals
Most forecast models agree that the northern half of MInnesota will see the heaviest rainfall through this weekend. The Europan, American GFS, and Canadian models all crank out multi-inch rainfall totals up north. We could see some hefty soaking 2 to 4-inch-plus totals if the models verify.
For southern Minnesota, precipitation looks scattered but locally meaningful in many areas. Forecast models suggest .50 to 1 inch-plus locally across southern Minnesota including the greater Twin Cities area.
Here’s the European model precipitation output through 7 a.m. Monday.
Keep in mind that summer convective rainfall is notoriously localized. Storms could literally produce less than .50” of rain in Eden Prairie and 1.8” in Edina next door.
Weather fingers crossed for more widespread significant rainfall in Friday’s model runs.
Severe risk Saturday
Saturday looks like the highest chance for a few severe storms across southern Minnesota. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk for severe storms in southwest MInnesota Saturday. A lower marginal risk includes the Twin Cities area.
The primary threats with any severe storms Saturday are large hail and damaging winds.
Stay tuned.