Thunderstorms likely overnight and again Friday afternoon

Radars will be lighting up across Minnesota through Friday evening. Two separate waves of storms are likely to sweep eastward across Minnesota through Friday.

The first wave of storms will roll across Minnesota Thursday night into early Friday morning. You can see the risk zone on the graphic at the top of this post. The marginal risk zone overnight runs eastward to the Twin Cities area.

The first wave is growing in South Dakota as of this post time late Thursday afternoon. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that includes far western Minnesota until 11 p.m. Thursday night.

NOAA’s HRRR model is similar to most solutions that drive a line of potentially severe storms across western and central Minnesota overnight. Most models show the storms will likely fade in intensity as they approach the Twin Cities and enter Minnesota after midnight. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Thursday and 4 a.m. Friday.

Friday severe risk

A second wave of storms is likely to develop along the advancing frontal zone Friday afternoon. I like the looks of NOAA’s WRF-ARW2 model that develops scattered cells along the frontal zone in west-central Minnesota starting around 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. Friday afternoon. The forecast model loop below runs between 3 p.m. and 7 p.m. Friday.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk for severe cells Friday afternoon and evening across central and eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

Keep an eye and ear out for possible severe weather watches and warnings through Friday afternoon.