Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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Our balmy November could be a preview of coming attractions this winter. 

El Niño is in strong control of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Recall that an El Niño event describes a large zone of warmer-than-average water temperatures in the tropical Pacific. 

And our current El Niño event could be a doozy. Many models forecast put water temperatures at more than 2 degrees Celsius above average by this winter. 

That would be what meteorologists unofficially call a 

. And the signals for warmer-than-average temperatures in the Upper Midwest are even stronger in so-called Super El Niño winters.

One of the trademark upper-air patterns during El Niño winters is a strong west-to-east flow across the United States. This type of air flow typically delivers milder Pacific air mass to Minnesota. 

That’s the setup we have this week that’s bringing record to near-record temperatures to Minnesota and most of the Upper Midwest. 

So if these zonal flow patterns are more frequent this winter, we’ll see increased intrusion of Pacific air masses into Minnesota.

Keep in mind we’ll still get winter in Minnesota this year. It will still snow. Temperatures may still dive below zero at times. But the climatological odds with El Niño favor milder temperatures overall this winter, and probably less-than-average snowfall.

We had 90 inches of snow in the Twin Cities last winter. My hunch is we’ll be closer to somewhere between 40 and 50 inches this winter.

Milder temperatures overall probably mean another year of sketchy lake ice thickness and stability this winter. 

Climate change has warmed winter by more than 5 degrees on average in Minnesota since 1970. 

And the coldest temperature recorded each winter has warmed by 12 degrees on average since 1970. This winter could trend even warmer. 

The lowest temperature recorded in winter has risen by about 12 degrees on average since 1970, from around minus 30 degrees to minus 18 degrees. 

Let’s see how cold it can manage to get this winter. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

Is our warmer-than-average November an early harbinger of winter temperatures? 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies 

An El Niño flavored November

Go Deeper.

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