Storms start to move out of Minnesota, continue for western Wisconsin

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I’ve written more than once this fall about our 

 Thanks to a massive patch of super warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the odds strongly favor a milder-than-normal winter in Minnesota. 

Yes, we’ll still get snow and some bitter air masses from time to time. But in the end, this winter is likely to feel a bit less harsh. 

So far, so good for El Niño in these last days of November. Even with our recent cold snap, we’re still running more than 2 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota this month. This is the seventh straight warmer-than-normal month in Minnesota. 

See the chart at the top of this post? It shows the 

 for the Twin Cities so far. We’re running in the moderate range so far.

Check out Duluth’s chart below. The Twin Ports area is having an almost balmy November compared to normal. 

AWSSI from the Midwest Regional Climate Center

It’s going to be interesting to see how December temperatures wrap up the year. Right now, forecast models for next week favor a return to warmer-than-normal temperatures. 

And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s three to four-week outlook paints a red bull's-eye of likely warmth right over Minnesota.

So the odds favor a warmer-than-normal December. If it happens that will be eight straight warmer-than-normal months to close out 2023.

We average about 51 inches of snow in the Twin Cities each year. I have a hunch we may end up closer to 40 inches, or less this winter. 

Paul Huttner

Author

So far winter is taking its time to get established in Minnesota. 

Winter season severity index off to a slow start in Minnesota

Midwest Regional Climate Center

Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index2

Winter season severity index off to a slow start in Minnesota

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