Friday snow trending north; potentially plowable for Twin Cities
A major winter storm is trending northward into more of Minnesota.
Here we go.
I wrote earlier today about heavy snowfall for parts of the North Shore. Winter storm warnings continue there into Thursday. Now southern Minnesota is the place with heavy snow potential by Friday.
Wednesday afternoon’s forecast models have made a distinct northward shift in Friday’s major storm center that will track south of Minnesota. The latest forecast model trends suggest significant snow could move as far north as the Twin Cities on Friday.
A winter storm watch was posted Wednesday afternoon includes most of southeast Minnesota. It currently comes as close to the Twin Cities as Red Wing as of Wednesday early evening.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service La Crosse, WI
2:28 p.m. CST Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024
Significant winter storm taking aim at the region
A powerful winter system impacts the region from late Thursday night into Saturday, bringing with it widespread accumulating snow and strong winds. The greatest impacts from falling snow would be during the day on Friday, with strong winds persisting Friday night into Saturday resulting in continued blowing snow and near whiteout conditions. A widespread 6 to 10 inches of snow is forecast, but these amounts could still change based on refinements to the storm track. Bitterly cold air arrives on the heels of this storm with wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero by Saturday night.
If current forecast model trends hold the watch zone could be expanded closer to or into the Twin Cities area on Wednesday night or Thursday.
The system
Friday’s inbound storm is the second major low-pressure system to cross the Midwest this week. The first system dumped up to 15 inches of snow in eastern Iowa. This system has the potential to drop more than a foot of fresh snow in parts of Iowa, Wisconsin and the Chicagoland area.
NOAA’s afternoon (18Z) NAM 3 km forecast model run shows the northward shift and likely bigger snow zone across Minnesota. You can see the loop at the top of this post, but here’s another look. Note the heaviest snowfall bands (darker) across Iowa and southeast Minnesota.
Snowfall totals
Forecast models are cranking out some impressive snowfall totals across Iowa through Chicago into Michigan. Check out this GFS Kuchera output. It cranks out a foot of snow from parts of Iowa through Chicago into Michigan. The GFS suggests around 4 to 5 inches for the Twin Cities area.
Now look at NOAA’s NAM model. It pushes heavier snowfall up to a foot northward into parts of southern Minnesota. It cranks out an impressive 8 to 9 inches for the Twin Cities.
It’s still too early for high confidence about eventual snowfall totals, especially in the Twin Cities near the northern part of the system.
But it’s beginning to look like very plowable, wind-driven snow is more likely late Thursday night through Friday.
Stay tuned.