Strong winds Saturday, still breezy Sunday; Red flag warning until 8 p.m. Sat.
Cooler on Sunday
A strong low pressure system was centered just north of Lake Superior Saturday morning. That low pressure system will move slowly to the east-southeast Saturday afternoon and evening, delivering gusty winds to Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Northwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will continue across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and evening, with gusts of 35 to 40+ mph. Gale warnings are posted for Lake Superior Saturday and Saturday night.
Red flag warning
Vegetation is dry in many areas, so any fires that develop today could spread rapidly. A red flag warning covers much of central and southern Minnesota from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. this Saturday:
The red flag warning includes most of the Twin Cities metro area.
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Here are details of the red flag warning:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 610 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON... .Northwest winds will increase to around 25 mph and will occasionally gust to 35 to 40 mph this afternoon. Humidity will drop to between near 30 percent. Fuels are very dry and any fire that develops could spread rapidly. MNZ047>049-054>060-062-064>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-162000- /O.CON.KMPX.FW.W.0003.240316T1800Z-240317T0100Z/ Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi- Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Ramsey-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod- Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice- Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault- Freeborn- 610 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... * AFFECTED AREA...Portions of central through southern Minnesota. * WIND...Northwest around 25 mph, gusting to 35 to 40 mph. * HUMIDITY...As low as 30 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Several counties that aren’t included in the red flag warning, including Anoka County and Washington County, do have an elevated fire risk today:
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 256 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 MNZ041>045-050>053-061-063-WIZ023>026-028-161800- Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti- Chisago-Anoka-Washington-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Blaine, Stillwater, Hudson, River Falls, Menomonie, Durand, and Eau Claire 256 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 ...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Low relative humidity values of around 30 percent, northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph gusting to around 35 mph, and very dry vegetation will result in an elevated wildfire risk. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...This afternoon. * IMPACTS...Fires could develop quickly and spread due to the very dry vegetation, low humidity and strong northwest winds. * ACTIONS...Check with your local authorities or the Department of Natural Resources to see whether any burning restrictions are in place in your county before starting fires.
You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.
Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D. and Grand Forks, N.D.
Flake chances north
Some areas of snow showers are expected in north-central and northeastern Minnesota plus northwestern Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday evening. Accumulations are expected to be fairly light in locations that do see some flakes:
Heavier lake-effect snow will hit parts of north-central Wisconsin and the upper penninsula of Michigan.
There could be a stray sprinkle of flurry in parts of central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin Saturday afternoon.
Sunday looks dry across most of Minnesota. Parts of northeastern Minnesota could see a light snow shower or flurry. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 7 a.m. Sunday to 10 p.m. Sunday:
Sunday wind gusts will be mainly in the 25 to 30 mph range.
Temperature trends
Many locations in Minnesota have already seen their Saturday high temp. The Twin Cities high for today was 51 degrees at 2 a.m., when most of us were sleeping. The afternoon high temp in the Twin Cities is expected to be in the mid 40s.
Most of the northern half of Minnesota will have temperatures in the 30s Saturday afternoon, with mainly 40s elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Sunday highs will be mainly in the 20s in northern Minnesota, with 30s elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin:
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 40s on Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday then around 40 on Friday.
Drought update
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report shows drought conditions in 74.74 percent of Minnesota, including the entire Twin Cities metro area:
The areas that are shaded beige are in moderate drought, with severe drought depicted by the orange shades which include parts of northern Minnesota and far southeastern Minnesota. Areas that are shaded yellow are abnormally dry but not yet in drought.
Much of Iowa and Wisconsin area also in drought right now, with extreme drought (red) in a large portion of eastern Iowa:
The drought maps are released each Thursday morning and include precipitation up to Tuesday morning. Portions of Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois saw some meaningful rainfall on Thursday. That rain is not included in the latest drought monitor map.
Weather nugget
The average Twin Cities temperature for the first half of March was 14 degrees warmer than normal. The average monthly temperature is the average of all the daily low temperatures and daily high temperatures.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.