Steamy Monday with strong storms possible late

Total rainfall this week will be less than last week

june 24 2024 storm prediction center outlook
An enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather Monday into Monday night
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center, via Iowa State University

A heat advisory is posted for southwestern Minnesota Monday afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday with drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

Steamy Monday; strong storms possible late

Monday will be quite warm across central and southern Minnesota. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s in southwestern Minnesota. 

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Forecast highs Monday
National Weather Service

Dew point temperatures will reach 70 degrees or higher by Monday afternoon, making it very humid and uncomfortable.

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Forecast dew points Monday afternoon
National Weather Service

There’s a heat advisory from 1 p.m. to 8 p.m. for southwestern Minnesota, where heat indices could reach the mid to upper 90s Monday afternoon. There’s also a flood watch for the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin for Monday night.

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Heat advisory for southwestern Minnesota, flood watch for the Twin Cities and southeastern Minnesota
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

There’s an enhanced slight risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms late Monday with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts (See the map at the top of this post).

We will have a very strong cap, or warm air aloft, which prevents most storms from forming. However, there will be so much energy due to the warm temperatures and high dew points, any storms that potentially develop could quickly become strong to severe.

Here are two possibilities.

The first is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model. It has a cluster of storms developing in the evening and forming a bow echo of damaging wind gusts in the 6 p.m. to 10 p.m. time frame:

North American Mesoscale forecast precipitation 7 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The second possibility is from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model. It has some activity developing, but probably below severe criteria:

Forecast precipitation 9 a.m. Monday through 3 a.m. Tuesday from NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Regardless, the storms Monday night aren’t expected to produce widespread heavy rainfall, but locally heavy rainfall is possible and any rain on saturated soils could be an issue. 

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Forecast rainfall Monday into Tuesday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Behind the cool front Tuesday it will be slightly cooler but dew points will drop significantly. Dew points will be in the 50s again by Tuesday afternoon.

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Forecast dew points Tuesday afternoon
National Weather Service

Highs will range from the mid-70s north to mid-80s south.

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Forecast highs Tuesday
National Weather Service

We have another chance of showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday into Friday. Total rainfall this week will be less than last week, but all rainfall will have to be monitored carefully given the cresting rivers and saturated soils.

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Total forecast rainfall this week through Saturday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather