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Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump 51 percent to 44 percent, 

according to a poll of Minnesota likely voters released by Morning Consult on Sept. 9

 — exactly the same result as reported by another poll of the state 

released by Redfield and Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph on Sept. 10

This brings the total to eight public polls conducted in the state since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, including four since Harris selected Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. Harris leads in each of these polls by an average of just over 6 percentage points.

Graph showing poll results for Harris vs Trump in Minnesota

Technically, when taken on their own the results of these most recent polls — like four of the other six recent polls — are within the margin of error. So, given the closeness of the race and relatively small sample sizes, six of the eight polls cannot definitively say that Harris is ahead. This is especially the case given that some likely voters remain undecided. The error margins also mean, however, that Harris’ current lead could be even larger than reflected in any given poll result.

The consistency of Harris’ lead across all eight polls, now averaging 6.1 percentage points, suggests that she would prevail in the state if the election were held today.

The picture has improved for the Democratic ticket in the state since President Biden withdrew from the race on July 21. Prior to that time polling had generally shown Biden with a slight lead in Minnesota, but that ultimately the race was too close to call when factoring in the undecided voters and the error margins or credibility intervals that accompanied each poll’s results. 

Graph showing poll results: Percentage of Minnesotans indicating that they will vote for the Democratic and Republican nominees

MPR News | Star Tribune | KARE11 Minnesota Poll

 of 800 likely voters and margin of error ±3.5 percentage points, found that 45 percent favored Biden, 41 percent favored Trump and 7 percent were undecided. Six percent favored Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has since suspended his national campaign.

Election forecasters agree: Minnesota is ‘likely Democrat’

Election forecasters, who generally combine both state and national polling results as well as economic indicators and other fundamentals into their predictions are having a hard time predicting who will win the national race for president.

They are not having such difficulty predicting the outcome in Minnesota, however. At least since Gov. Walz’s appointment as Harris running mate, the five forecasts we are following all agree that the Democratic ticket will likely receive the state’s ten electoral votes.

the nation’s longest streak among all states for favoring a  Democrat for president

. A Republican has not won the presidential race in Minnesota since 1972, when Republican President Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee George McGovern by 5.5 percentage points. 

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 7.1 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump also lost the state, but only by 1.5 percentage points.

Both the Democrats and Republicans have faced setbacks in this year’s presidential campaign:

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would be her vice presidential running mate

 on Aug. 6. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who was running for president as an independent, 

announced that he was suspending his candidacy and backing Trump

For a summary of polling and fundraising data related to the state’s races for the U.S. House and Senate, as well as updates to the state’s presidential race, see our feature: 

Minnesota News

Politics and Government News

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Election 2024

Craig Helmstetter

Author

Two new polls of Minnesota voters, released Sept. 9 and 10, add to two others conducted since Gov. Tim Walz was selected as Harris’ running mate. All show the Democratic ticket currently leading the Trump-Vance Republican ticket in the race for Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes.

a woman walks on stage past an American flag

Harris’ average lead in Minnesota’s presidential race is now 6 points

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