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Showers at times this weekend; snow chance next week?

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The sound of rain on the roof was very relaxing overnight. It wouldn't have been so welcome a week or two ago, when rivers were rising across southern Minnesota.

We'll see additional rain at times this weekend.

Temperature trends

Saturday afternoon highs flirt with 60 in southern Minnesota, and a few spots could creep into the lower 60s. Central Minnesota will top out in the 50s, with some 40s in parts of northern Minnesota.  Our average high this time of year is 53 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Sunday highs could reach the 60s in about the southern half of Minnesota:

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Monday will feature a lot of highs in the 60s, and the far south could touch 70:

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Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 50s Tuesday, followed by upper 40s Wednesday and  mid 40s on Thursday and Friday.

Rain chances

Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have some areas of fog this Saturday morning.

The steady rains are expected to taper off in much of eastern Minnesota by midday, but they'll continue a bit longer in northeastern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm could re-develop over Minnesota and western Wisconsin as we go through Saturday afternoon and evening.  Additional showers and a few thunderstorms are also possible overnight and Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Snow next week?

Yesterday, I posted NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model, which indicated snow over parts of Iowa next Wednesday into Thursday.

The most recent run of the GFS model shifts the snow northward, bringing it over Minnesota Wednesday into Thursday night:

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NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Wednesday through Friday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.

NOAA's experimental (FV3) version of the GFS has a more southerly track, but brings significant snow to parts of southern Minnesota in that same time frame:

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NOAA FV3-GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Wednesday through Friday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model still brings some significant snow to the Twin Cities metro area next Wednesday into Thursday.

We can't bet on any one model at this point. Stay tuned, forecasts should be clearer as we get closer to Wednesday.

Red River is rising

Thankfully, the Mississippi River at St. Paul and the St. Croix River at Stillwater continue to fall. Most river levels along the Minnesota River continue to fall as well.

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

The Red River along the Minnesota-North Dakota border is still rising.  Hydrographs for locations along the Red River can be found here.

Here’s the Saturday morning hydrograph for the Red River at Fargo, N.D., which is at major flood stage and still rising:

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NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

The Red River at East Grand Forks, Minn., is expected to reach major flood stage around the middle of next week. Their hydrograph shows a dramatic rise as we go through the next 6 days:

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NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

There are numerous flood warnings in effect. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website.

Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on the NWS main page; here’s how the map looked  Saturday morning:

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NWS Twin Cities

The latest flood warnings for northwestern Minnesota can be found on the National Weather Service Grand Forks, N.D., office site. Here’s how their map looked Saturday morning:

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NWS Grand Forks, N.D.

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the weather service point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you.

The NWS also posts some flooding details for central and southern Minnesota here. If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.