Rain has eased Minnesota's drought, but not completely
Drought conditions have improved, week over week.
National Drought Mitigation Center
We've had quite a bit of rain over the past few days, and it's helped ease drought that, to this point, has withered crops and lawns throughout much of the state. But while today's drought monitor report contained good news, we're not quite out of the woods yet.
MPR News host Cathy Wurzer talked with Assistant State Climatologist Pete Boulay.
Use the audio player above to listen to the full conversation.
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Audio transcript
CATHY WURZER: Well, the other big story we're following. We've actually had-- of course, you know this-- quite a bit of rain over the past few days, and it has helped ease the drought that to this point has withered crops and lawns throughout much of the state. That's good news, right? But while today's drought monitor did have some glimmers of hope, we're not quite out of the woods yet. Here to explain the latest is Assistant State Climatologist Pete Boulay. Hey, Pete. How are you?
PETE BOULAY: Hi, Cathy. Doing fine.
CATHY WURZER: Good. Well, how big a bite did the recent heavy rains take out of the drought picture?
PETE BOULAY: Well, if you live in the Eastern half of the state, that's where the biggest bite was taken out. We got two to four inches of rain in many places, Twin Cities on up to Duluth, and even West Central Minnesota, too. And that was enough to kind of jump us ahead to improve a category in the drought.
Instead of extreme drought, we have severe drought now across at least much of the Twin Cities, and there's still some extreme drought out there along the Mississippi and in Southeast parts of the state. Places like Saint Cloud didn't get quite as much rain, so they didn't see quite as much improvement there, but definitely a step in the right direction.
CATHY WURZER: Once we do start getting rain-- who told me this? Was it you a long time ago? It's hard to pull out of a drought, right? I mean, yes, you need rain. I get that. I understand that. But there has to be some atmospheric things to change to pull us out of a drought. Are we seeing those signs right now?
PETE BOULAY: Well, it's looking good right now. We seem to have a bit of a pattern shift a bit to a more wetter pattern, so I'm hoping that continues. One event usually won't get us out of a drought. Probably the one exception would be in Duluth. They would say they're not in a drought anymore at all.
They have about 10 inches of rain for the month so far, and they're doing OK up there. Maybe a little bit too much of a good thing. And it does look like our weather pattern has changed a little bit. At least we have chances for more precipitation coming, and that'll be welcome for much of the state to continue to get us out of this deficit.
CATHY WURZER: As you look at the weeks ahead as fall starts to deepen, are there risks of parts of the state that have improved slipping back into more severe drought before the snow flies?
PETE BOULAY: Now, that's a good question because what's also going to happen is we're going to have well above normal temperatures. Normal high and low right now in the Twin Cities is in the 60s for highs and lows in the 40s, so we're going to be well above normal for temperature. If we don't get the rain, if we have 80s come back, we'll start drying things out again in a hurry, so that can happen, too, for the places that get missed.
So as we go later in the fall, as the crops get harvested and plants stop taking up moisture, the ground will become more efficient to soaking up the moisture. And it got a good drink already, so hopefully we'll get more of these events. Maybe not quite that much of an event.
It's been around for a week now. We still got the clouds from the same old cut off low pressure system, so it'll eventually die out, and the warmth will return. And hopefully, we'll get some more rain, too.
CATHY WURZER: Yeah. With all the rain we've had, where are the deficits right now? How far down is the Twin Cities, as an example, still at this point?
PETE BOULAY: Yep. The Twin Cities for the year is still about 4.7 inches short of normal for the whole year. Saint Cloud is short, too. Rochester short of normal, too. So we could get a couple more inches-- would go a long way.
We don't have to make up all the deficits, but we've come a long way already. The soil always gets the water first, and then it goes into lakes and streams. And lakes and streams are still pretty low, so there's plenty of more room for that water.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, OK. So we still have that left to go. And then, of course, as you say, the deadline here is before the soils start to freeze up.
PETE BOULAY: We got plenty of time, hopefully.
[LAUGHTER]
Hopefully, that won't happen until November sometime. Usually right around Thanksgiving or so is when things get locked in for the year, for the winter. So we got some time, and hopefully, we'll have some nice days, too, thrown in there, and some more rain. It'd be nice to have at least normal or above normal precipitation for the rest of the year to continue to go in the right direction.
CATHY WURZER: What are the chances, though, really, of not getting to the finish line here and locking in? And then we'd have a dry spring, right?
PETE BOULAY: Correct. The places I'm most worried about is who's still in extreme drought now. They got the most ground to make up. They didn't get as much rain. There's a swath basically from Worthington through Saint Cloud through Cass County up to International Falls that got missed out on this big event. Those are the areas I'd be most concerned about that might still be in drought later on if we don't get the rains.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Hey, Pete. Always a pleasure. Thanks so much.
PETE BOULAY: Great. Take care.
CATHY WURZER: That's Assistant State Climatologist Pete Boulay.
PETE BOULAY: Hi, Cathy. Doing fine.
CATHY WURZER: Good. Well, how big a bite did the recent heavy rains take out of the drought picture?
PETE BOULAY: Well, if you live in the Eastern half of the state, that's where the biggest bite was taken out. We got two to four inches of rain in many places, Twin Cities on up to Duluth, and even West Central Minnesota, too. And that was enough to kind of jump us ahead to improve a category in the drought.
Instead of extreme drought, we have severe drought now across at least much of the Twin Cities, and there's still some extreme drought out there along the Mississippi and in Southeast parts of the state. Places like Saint Cloud didn't get quite as much rain, so they didn't see quite as much improvement there, but definitely a step in the right direction.
CATHY WURZER: Once we do start getting rain-- who told me this? Was it you a long time ago? It's hard to pull out of a drought, right? I mean, yes, you need rain. I get that. I understand that. But there has to be some atmospheric things to change to pull us out of a drought. Are we seeing those signs right now?
PETE BOULAY: Well, it's looking good right now. We seem to have a bit of a pattern shift a bit to a more wetter pattern, so I'm hoping that continues. One event usually won't get us out of a drought. Probably the one exception would be in Duluth. They would say they're not in a drought anymore at all.
They have about 10 inches of rain for the month so far, and they're doing OK up there. Maybe a little bit too much of a good thing. And it does look like our weather pattern has changed a little bit. At least we have chances for more precipitation coming, and that'll be welcome for much of the state to continue to get us out of this deficit.
CATHY WURZER: As you look at the weeks ahead as fall starts to deepen, are there risks of parts of the state that have improved slipping back into more severe drought before the snow flies?
PETE BOULAY: Now, that's a good question because what's also going to happen is we're going to have well above normal temperatures. Normal high and low right now in the Twin Cities is in the 60s for highs and lows in the 40s, so we're going to be well above normal for temperature. If we don't get the rain, if we have 80s come back, we'll start drying things out again in a hurry, so that can happen, too, for the places that get missed.
So as we go later in the fall, as the crops get harvested and plants stop taking up moisture, the ground will become more efficient to soaking up the moisture. And it got a good drink already, so hopefully we'll get more of these events. Maybe not quite that much of an event.
It's been around for a week now. We still got the clouds from the same old cut off low pressure system, so it'll eventually die out, and the warmth will return. And hopefully, we'll get some more rain, too.
CATHY WURZER: Yeah. With all the rain we've had, where are the deficits right now? How far down is the Twin Cities, as an example, still at this point?
PETE BOULAY: Yep. The Twin Cities for the year is still about 4.7 inches short of normal for the whole year. Saint Cloud is short, too. Rochester short of normal, too. So we could get a couple more inches-- would go a long way.
We don't have to make up all the deficits, but we've come a long way already. The soil always gets the water first, and then it goes into lakes and streams. And lakes and streams are still pretty low, so there's plenty of more room for that water.
CATHY WURZER: Oh, OK. So we still have that left to go. And then, of course, as you say, the deadline here is before the soils start to freeze up.
PETE BOULAY: We got plenty of time, hopefully.
[LAUGHTER]
Hopefully, that won't happen until November sometime. Usually right around Thanksgiving or so is when things get locked in for the year, for the winter. So we got some time, and hopefully, we'll have some nice days, too, thrown in there, and some more rain. It'd be nice to have at least normal or above normal precipitation for the rest of the year to continue to go in the right direction.
CATHY WURZER: What are the chances, though, really, of not getting to the finish line here and locking in? And then we'd have a dry spring, right?
PETE BOULAY: Correct. The places I'm most worried about is who's still in extreme drought now. They got the most ground to make up. They didn't get as much rain. There's a swath basically from Worthington through Saint Cloud through Cass County up to International Falls that got missed out on this big event. Those are the areas I'd be most concerned about that might still be in drought later on if we don't get the rains.
CATHY WURZER: All right. Hey, Pete. Always a pleasure. Thanks so much.
PETE BOULAY: Great. Take care.
CATHY WURZER: That's Assistant State Climatologist Pete Boulay.
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