Consensus, sort of

There are a lot of computer models available for forecasts in the U.S. these days.

The NWS has a product called SREF or Short Range Ensemble Forecasts that combines the output from 21 models. The goal is to combine all the extremes to form a "consensus" forecast, taking the variability of any one model out of the equation. It works brilliantly, sometimes.

The SREF is taking the snow field our next weather system on Thursday south of the metro. It lays down a band of snow from Redwood Falls and Worthington to Mankato, Albert Lea and Rochester. The Twin Cities is right on the northern edge of the moisture, which should keep most of the accumulating snow to our south if SREF "verifies."

NOAA "SREF" forecast page

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One of the models, the GFS keeps a band of snow in the metro Thursday. It will be interesting to see how this is resolved over the next 36 hours. The GFS has gone back and forth with the snow band lately. The "art" of weather forecasting (my gut) tells me we'll probably be right on the edge, with the best chance of heavy snow just south.

Stay tuned on this one folks, the new model runs in this morning suggest this snow may have a shot at the Twin Cities.

After a drier and sunnier Friday and Saturday, the next and more potent system rolls in Saturday night and Sunday with a rain snow mix. There may even be a chance of thunder with this one.

There is good news in the forecast if you're looking for spring. The trend is toward milder 40's and even a shot at 50's by late next week.

Yes, I know we've been saying it's going to get milder "next week" for a few weeks now. But we had a long way to go coming from a high of 11 and a low of -6 back on March 7th! So we've made progress.

PH