Spectacular weekend, aurora alert

Welcome to fall in Minnesota.

During this season you'll feel crisp morning air and warm afternoon sun. Vibrant shades of color explode around you. Starry night skies and cool blue lakes beckon. September can be the best month of the year in Minnesota.

Does life get any better than this?

Aurora alert

Another powerful geomagnetic storm is racing earthward this weekend. That should mean another shot of northern Lights this weekend over Minnesota.

Here's more from NOAA's Space Weather center.

STRONG (G3) GEOMAGNETIC STORM OBSERVED ON 11 SEPTEMBER 2015

published: Friday, September 11, 2015 17:15 UTC

The influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream caused an isolated period of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms between 11/0600-0900 UTC (0200-0500 EDT).  G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms levels have been observed since that time and G3 storms remain possible for the next few hours as effects continue. Stay tuned for updates!

Classic fall weekend

Yes the calendar still says astronomical summer. But meteorologists march to the beat of a different weather drummer. Just talk to one. We're the nerdy folks with a quick answer on why meteorological fall began Sept. 1. (Hint, the months of Sep-Nov constitute fall for meteorological record keeping.)

Get ready for a classic (meteorological) fall weekend across Minnesota. A cool lazy fair weather Canadian high pressure system drifts over Minnesota this weekend. Here's the map.

Southerly breezes on the back side of the high trigger a warming trend Sunday. Temps push 80 degrees again in western Minnesota by Sunday afternoon.

Forecast details, please?

Meteograms are a great way to visualize forecast data over time. Here's a closer breakdown of key forecast parameters this weekend and early next week. Four dry sunny days in a row? Somebody pinch me.

Frosty up north

Saturday morning flavors the coldest morning of the season so far for northeast Minnesota. Scattered frost is likely at several locations.

Frost advisories are up for northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

Freezing temps  on Sept. 12 are not at all unusual for approaching mid-September up north.

Here's a look at the average dates for the first 32 degree temp of fall across the Upper Midwest from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

Here's a closer look at average fall freeze dates around the metro. The first 32 degree temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport averages Oct. 7.

Looking ahead I don't see any real possibility of a frost on the metro for the next two weeks plus. Your Supertunias are safe for a few more weeks.

El Nino ramps up

The Super-Mega-Godzilla-Uber El Nino continues to fire in the tropical Pacific. This looks likely to challenge the strongest El Nino event on record of 1997-98. The smart money historically is on a milder than average winter, with probably less than average snowfall in Minnesota.

The wild card? A persistent bubble of warm water called "the blob" off the west coast. There is some questions as to how that will affect winter jet stream patterns across North America. Could it result in a cooler northwesterly flow for Minnesota and more persistent dry ridging our west?

Note how this year's El Nino looks remarkably similar to the 1997-98 event of record, except for the warm bubble off the California coast.

Here's the September ENSO update from NOAA.

Hottest year on record out west

Yes all weather is local. We bask in relative mildness here in the Midwest even as the globe heats up and will likely deliver another "warmest year on record" in 2015. This year is heading for an off the charts warmest year, globally.

Out west it looks like four western states may see the hottest year on record.

Blame it on the ridiculously resilient ridge. Here's more detail on the western heat of 2015 from Climate Central.

Two western states — Washington and Oregon —­ had their hottest summers on record, driven in part by stifling August weather. Those two states, along with California and Nevada have recorded their warmest January-August, and are poised to potentially see their hottest years ever.

“I think it's likely that 2015 will set the record for the warmest year on record for WA State,” Karin Bumbaco, assistant state climatologist for Washington, said in an email. Even if the rest of the year were simply average temperature-wise, 2015 would surpass the current record-holder of 1934 by 0.5°F, she said, and with a strong El Niño in place, it’s likely that temperatures will stay on the warmer side for the remainder of the year.

Kathie Dello, deputy director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State University, said that since the year is only two-thirds over, it can’t be said for sure that Oregon will see its warmest year.

NOAA’s Science On a Sphere animations coming to your desktop

This looks like a great tool to help the kids learn earth science as they get back to school. Or maybe for the adult weather geek in your home?

Here's more from NOAA.

Today NOAA released a free, downloadable flat screen version of its popular Science On a Sphere® (SOS), SOS ExplorerTM. This new way to display the dynamics of Earth’s weather and climate, plate tectonics and more will help teachers bring these stunning science visualizations, usually found at museums and science centers, into the classroom, where students can learn by exploring.

“Bringing SOS Explorer into the classroom and having it as a visual tool is a huge help because students can see numbers and it doesn’t make much sense,” said Jayme Margolin-Sneider, a middle school science teacher at Westview Middle School in Longmont, Colorado. “But when we show it to them in an animation or a simulation, the lightbulb goes on.”

SOS Explorer uses off-the shelf video gaming technology. “The gaming industry is a multi-billion dollar industry. It surpassed Hollywood in terms of revenue and it’s really using cutting-edge technology,” said Eric Hackathorn, lead SOS Explorer developer at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Systems Division in Boulder, Colorado. “By leveraging that technology we can create very effective visualizations.”