Slow motion fall
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Our summer long weather romance mellows into a slow motion fall.
So far this meteorological fall (Sep-Nov) is running about 4 degrees warmer than average overall as we pass the halfway mark. The weather dice keep coming up warm for Minnesota this fall. Temperatures ran at least 10 degrees warmer than average again today across most of Minnesota.
69 degrees - high temp at MSP Airport Tuesday
+13 degrees vs. average high of 56 degrees
+2.7 degrees October temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport
+5.9 degrees September temps vs. average at MSP Airport
Warmest September on record for Minnesota
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El Nino fingerprints already here?
It's dicey to draw hard and fast conclusions yet about how the uber Godzilla monster El Nino event in the Pacific will ultimately effect our winter season. But our record September warmth could be one early indicator.
Check out the comparison between temperatures this September and the strongest El Nino event on record from 1997-98. This September was 2 to 6 degrees warmer than the 1997-98 El Nino event across the Upper Midwest. Just one data point, but food for thought.
Here's a closer look at the data from the Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Friday soaker?
Our Minnesota Nice fall weather continues as high pressure builds overhead through Thursday. The next best hope for some meaningful soaking rain rolls in Friday as low pressure gathers from the west. Watch the surge of Gulf moisture working north ahead of the developing low.
This system should be a pretty efficient rainfall producer. I still think widespread rainfall totals between .50" and 1" look likely. The best chance for some 1"+ totals favors northern Minnesota. Texas and the desert southwest get soaked again. Symptoms of a burgeoning El Nino?
Here's a more detailed breakdown of the next week in the Twin Cities area according to what many consider the best numerical weather forecast model on the planet; the ECMWF (Euro) model. Pick your weather sweet spots.
Mild bias for Halloween?
It's still too early to be super confident here, but the early read on Halloween from NOAA's GFS model has been leaning mild for most of the last few runs. Balmy temps near 60 degrees on Halloween? That would be a treat, but the models may still have some tricks up their collective sleeves this far out.
Stay tuned.
