Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Mild to wild? Colder, snowier pattern likely emerging

Tale of two Decembers?

December is shaping up to show a seriously split personality. The first half of December will almost certainly go down as one of the warmest starts to December on record.

The numbers.

  • +11.2 degrees December temps vs. average so far at MSP Airport

  • All 8 days above average in December

  • 34 of the past 38 days above average in Minnesota since November 1

  • 5 to 8 degrees warmer than average in Minnesota so far overall in 2015

1208 2015 temps
Midwest Regional Climate Center

Our December balmy streak continues for now. We ride a string of 8 consecutive days with highs in the 40s, a rare feat for December in Minnesota.

1208 fcst

The second half of December? Colder and probably whiter. Changes in the jet stream pattern start to emerge this weekend. Cold fronts ahead return temperatures closer to average, and our chances for snow increases in the next two weeks

A shot at 50 degrees?

Seattle breezes linger through Thursday. We mix in some welcome sun Wednesday, and the thermal ridge with the next warm front arrives early Thursday. I expect a few thermometers to reach 50 degrees in southern Minnesota either day if we get enough sun. A few metro bank thermometers may even flash 50 degrees.

Looking for an early spring break destination? How about Des Moines?

1208 MaxT3_uppermissvly
NOAA

Here's a closer look into next weekend.

1208 kky9
Weatherspark NOAA GFS data

Watching Sunday snow chances

It's still way too early to be too confident about our chances for snow in the Twin Cities Sunday. Forecaster confidence will rise dramatically by next Monday. Seriously, winter storms in the Upper Midwest are among the most difficult forecasts meteorologists have to make.

1208 msp5

Shifting storm tracks. Iffy moisture feeds. Dry slots. Elusive rain-snow lines. Mini convective snowbursts with thundersnow that can deliver 2"+ per hour snowfall rates over highly localized areas. That's why ethically responsible meteorologists don't issue 13" snowfall forecasts a week in advance.

That said, take a look at the lively North Pacific satellite loop. Note the series of comma shaped storms swirling eastward toward the northern U.S.

1208 n pac
College of Dupage

The models will try and grapple with the precise track and intensity of these storms as the come ashore into the denser data grid over the U.S. west coast in the next few days.

Suffice to say at this point that many models wind up a low pressure system somewhere into the Midwest Sunday. A second system looks potentially more interesting next Tuesday or Wednesday. A third may be in the cards around December 20th.

Stay tuned.

Weather, climate change, and Christmas?

Weather was the running theme at this year's always excellent New Standards show at the State Theater Saturday night. Chan, John, Steve and the entire band were on fire during the must see holiday show.

One great aspect of the show is all the amazing guest performers who drop in. Leave it to songwriter extraordinaire Dan Wilson to come up with this great little number that sums up how this year's weather and climate changes are driving the news.

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