Florence triple threat: Wind, surge, flooding rainfall

Hurricane Florence is still making a beeline toward the Carolina coast. The latest model guidance continues to bring a powerful Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds to the Carolina coast late Thursday into Friday.

Here's the latest official National Hurricane Center track map.

Eyewall replacement cycle

Florence underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight. That's how hurricanes shed their skin and grow even bigger.

A new, larger eyewall is beginning to open up on satellite images Tuesday morning.

Warm water ahead

Florence will ride over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the next 24 to 48 hours. This bubble of warm water around 85 degrees will be rocket fuel for intensification as Florence approaches the coast.

Wind and surge threat

NOAA's National Hurricane Center forecast Florence's wind speeds to hit 150 mph Wednesday. The storm is still likely to be Category 4 with 130 to 140 mph winds at landfall. That level of wind will produce widespread structural damage along the coast.

The predicted storm surge of 8 to 12 feet along the coast will overwash many barrier islands and coastal areas. Places in the Outer Banks like Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands are only 3 feet above sea level.

The devastation we are likely to witness with overwash and 20 to 30-foot waves is catastrophic.

Feet of rain

Florence is forecast to stall once it arrives at the coast. This is a worst case scenario for heavy rainfall. Some models are cranking out 20 to 30 inches of rain with Florence.

The bottom line is Florence is still expected to be one of the worst hurricanes to hit the eastern United States.