July 31 update on COVID-19 in MN: Hospitalizations up; worry circles the rodeo

A volunteer checks a patient to be tested for Covid-19
A Medical Reserve Corps volunteer checks a patient to be tested for Covid-19 at United Medical Center in Washington, D.C.
Manuel Balce Ceneta | AP

Updated 4:30 p.m.

State public health leaders have agonized for weeks about bars, restaurants and neighborhood saloons turning into epicenters of COVID-19 spread. On Friday, they added a rodeo to the list.

The Health Department confirmed a person who showed up at the popular North Star Stampede in Effie, in Itasca County, over the weekend was contagious with COVID-19 while there and warned attendees to watch for symptoms and get tested if they develop.

In confirming the case, Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm again pleaded with Minnesotans to mask up in indoor public gathering spaces, stay spaced 6 feet apart, wash hands and otherwise stay vigilant against the disease.

“I know how weary you are of hearing me say these things day after day,” she admitted at one point.

Hospitalizations, cases climb

Malcolm’s remarks came hours after her agency reported COVID-19 hospitalizations had resumed their upward climb, continuing a trend that’s been worrying Minnesota public health officials for weeks.

The Health Department reported 312 people currently hospitalized for the disease, with 151 of those needing intensive care. Both of those closely watched metrics have risen to levels not seen in more than a month.

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While hospitalizations still remain far lower now than at their late-May peak, officials have been bracing Minnesotans to expect a surge following a weekslong climb in new confirmed cases. That appears to be happening.

The department confirmed 779 more cases Friday, along with six more deaths — placing Minnesota at a grim milestone of 1,600 deaths since the pandemic began. Of those who’ve died, 76 percent had been living in long-term care or assisted living facilities.

Current COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota

Among the 54,463 total confirmed COVID-19 cases during the pandemic, about 87 percent of those infected have recovered to the point they no longer need to be isolated.

Comfortable with schools plan

The newest numbers come a day after Gov. Tim Walz rolled out his "localized, data-driven” plan for returning to school in the fall.

The statewide plan calls for returning to in-person classroom teaching when possible. But the plan left districts to decide whether their school systems will start the year in buildings, online or some combination — based on their local COVID-19 conditions, which aren’t getting better in most places.

New COVID-19 cases per day in Minnesota

Malcolm on Friday said health officials are comfortable recommending that Minnesota schools open for young students this fall because data shows they pose a low risk of transmitting the coronavirus.

“We're more concerned about the ability for kids over the age of 15 to transmit,” she said, adding that her department will continue to monitor numbers and reassess school guidance if necessary.

‘Contributing to the solution — or to the crisis’

Malcolm and other health leaders this week have been ratcheting up their concerns that Minnesota is back on the wrong path in its fight against COVID-19’s spread, which is one of the reasons Walz posted the executive order requiring face coverings statewide in stores and other indoor gathering spaces.

"We think that with the mitigation efforts and if mask compliance works, this should peak about the 15th of August, and then we should see a steady downward trend,” Walz on Friday.

Officials remain particularly concerned about rising levels of community spread where the origin is unknown.

It’s “one of the things we’ve been expressing alarm about in recent weeks,” Malcolm said Friday, noting that community spread is increasing as more people return to public gathering spaces. "The current executive orders aren't being adhered to as closely as they need to be."

A graph showing the number of COVID-19 positive cases to date.

Wednesday marked the first time in a month that total current hospitalizations rose above 300, the product of an upswing in new confirmed infections, coming a day after Minnesota saw one of its largest one-day increases in hospitalizations since the pandemic began.

“As we have feared, we are seeing our hospitalizations begin to increase, and I don’t think it’s just a blip,” Ehresmann said.

Cases growing across age brackets, up north

Worries remain about the growth of coronavirus cases in younger Minnesotans, including that those infected will inadvertently spread the virus to grandparents and other more vulnerable populations.

Minnesotans in their 20s now make up the age group with the most confirmed cases in the pandemic — nearly 13,000. The median age of Minnesotans infected has been trending down in recent weeks and is now 36 years old.

New Minnesota COVID-19 cases by age, adjusted for population

Investigators continue to see rising cases with bars and restaurants at their center and are examining outbreaks in 28 establishments, Ehresmann said this week.

“Consider all the roles you play” in all daily interactions, she cautioned, noting that people who might not worry about themselves should worry about infecting vulnerable family members and coworkers.

Regionally, newly reported cases have been driven recently by the Twin Cities and its suburbs, but it’s present in all parts of the state, including the north, which had largely avoided the outbreak until recently.

New COVID-19 cases by Minnesota region

Cases in Beltrami County, home to Bemidji, have more than doubled in the past week and a half, from 53 to 122 on Friday. That jumped again to 184 as of Friday.

Ehresmann last week said the Beltrami case increase is tied to spread from athletic events and other public gatherings. Most of the state’s latest hot spots for the disease are in northern and central Minnesota.

MN counties with the fastest per-capita growth in COVID-19 cases

Meatpacking operations had been hot spots for big outbreaks in southwest, west-central and central Minnesota earlier in the pandemic, but new cases have slowed considerably in recent weeks.

A graph showing the percentage of cases tested and their current status.

Did you go to the rodeo? Watch for symptoms

Thousands of people went to the North Star Stampede, although not as actual spectators.

Rodeo organizer Cimarron Pitzen encouraged people to attend in protest of the state’s limitations on public gatherings, which would have kept the crowd under 250.

Asked why the Walz administration didn’t try to stop the effort in advance, Malcolm referred questions to the Minnesota attorney general’s office, which announced on Friday that it’s suing the rodeo’s owner for “carelessly” allowing large crowds without taking required safety precautions.

Officials said no other illnesses connected with the event have been detected yet, but that the incubation period for COVID-19 can be as long as 14 days.

Malcolm said her department is aware most people who attended the rodeo gathered without masks or much effort to socially distance. She asked anyone who attended to do those things now to limit a possible outbreak.

“We know that there were many, many people, so there is certainly the possibility of other exposures. We don’t know how many,” she said. “We’re still doing the follow-up investigation.”

Developments from around the state

COVID-19 hit to state budget may last years

The COVID-19 pandemic could put a big dent in future state budgets.

A planning estimate released Friday by state finance officials shows a $4.7 billion revenue shortfall in fiscal years 2022 and 2023 because of the economic slowdown triggered by the pandemic. 

The state is already facing a more a $2.3 billion deficit this biennium, but Minnesota Management and Budget Commissioner Myron Frans said the financial situation could change depending on the course of the virus.

"We need to see what's going to happen with COVID-19 this fall," Frans said. "And that also gives us some time to plan and make sure we make really smart strategic decisions before we have to make the long term budget decisions we'll have to face for '22 and '23."

The long-term outlook does not include any additional money the federal government might send to the states.

— Brian Bakst | MPR News

U of M plans to test students for COVID-19 on its five campuses

The University of Minnesota rolled out a COVID-19 testing plan for students for the fall semester across five campuses.

The plan calls for testing of people with COVID-19-related symptoms and close contacts who had exposure to a confirmed case. The testing also will cover asymptomatic individuals linked to an ongoing Minnesota Department of Health investigation and asymptomatic people who need specific medical care.

The head of the school's Health Emergency Response office, Jill DeBoer, said this is part of a multilayered approach to COVID-19.

"One of our important layers — and I feel that it's one of the most important layers — is to make sure that people at increased risk for complications from a COVID infection are supported to make individual decision about in-person work and in-person school," DeBoer said.

Among the other plans, the university will care and support students who live in campus residence halls who need to quarantine or isolate.

Earlier this week, the U of M announced that a majority of its classes this fall would likely be fully online due to the pandemic. More than 6,200 classes are listed as online or remote, but these numbers are not final, a spokesperson for the university said. Students are free to adjust their classes to take them in the format that works best for them.

— Peter Cox | MPR News

Top headlines

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COVID-19 in Minnesota

Data in these graphs are based off Minnesota Department of Health cumulative totals released at 11 a.m. daily. You can find more detailed statistics on COVID-19 at the Health Department website.

The coronavirus is transmitted through respiratory droplets, coughs and sneezes, similar to the way the flu can spread.