Tuesday snow: Twin Cities in or near the heaviest snowfall zone?

Forecast models cranking out 3 to 8 inches in central and southern Minnesota.

October snowfall
On October 12, 2009, 2.5 inches of snow fell at the Minneapolis/St. Paul Airport.
Courtesy of Craig Edwards

You can see more details on my thoughts about Tuesday’s snowfall timing and coverage on my earlier Updraft post today. But Tuesday’s late forecast model runs suggest some interesting snowfall trends regarding the Twin Cities area.

Several forecast models suggest the axis of heaviest snowfall could be setting up near or over the Twin Cities Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday’s 12Z European model forecast paved the way for this idea with an output that places the heaviest snow axis from near redwood Falls through the Twin Cities area. In this scenario, a band of 6 to 8 inches of snow would fall in this stripe.

European model (ECMWF) snowfall output
European model (ECMWF) snowfall output Tuesday
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Keep in mind we may lose a couple of inches to melting from warm ground and daylight.

The afternoon 18Z runs from some of the American models seem to echo the Euro’s trend. NOAA’s 18Z GFS model also places a swath of 6 inches-plus across the Twin Cities.

NOAA 18Z GFS snowfall output Tuesday
NOAA 18Z GFS snowfall output Tuesday
NOAA via pivotal weather

And NOAA’s NAM model continues the trend of cranking out 6-inch snowfall potential.

NOAA NAM model snowfall output Tuesday
NOAA NAM model snowfall output Tuesday
NOAA via pivotal weather

The bigger more important picture is that snow will impact much of Minnesota Tuesday. A difference of an inch or two here and there won’t change the impacts much. But in the game of snowfall forecasting and watching, it will be interesting to watch late-night model trends for any possible changes in Tuesday’s snow scenario.

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