Winter storm watch includes Twin Cities

Here we go again.

The next wintry weather system spreads snow into Minnesota Tuesday.

A winter storm watch is up for a swath of countries from southwest Minnesota to the North Shore. It includes the Twin Cities area and much of northwest Wisconsin.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 246 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2020

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SOME SHIFTING OF THIS BAND EAST OR WEST IS STILL POSSIBLE...

Another round of precipitation will develop across Nebraska tonight and advance northeast to northwest Iowa, southern and eastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin Tuesday. At this time, a narrow stripe of heavy snowfall is possible from southwest Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin, including east central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro where 4 to 7 inches are possible.

Some shifting of this band east or west is still possible and confidence in location of this band is lower than normal for this range. Sleet and freezing rain may mix with the snow from south central Minnesota to north central Wisconsin.

The afternoon rush may be significantly impacted with the heaviest snow most likely occurring during that time. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued Tuesday and Tuesday evening for areas east of a line from New Ulm to Mora, and west of a line from Owatonna to Ladysmith.

Boom and bust potential

There are still significant forecast model differences on Tuesday’s snowfall potential. To my eye, this storm has significant boom and bust potential for parts of the Upper Midwest.

First the boom.

A couple of model solutions suggest a foot of heavy wet snow could fall in northwest Wisconsin by Wednesday morning. Here’s the Canadian model.

I’m inclined to agree the heaviest snowfall will favor northwest Wisconsin with this system. And some locations could reach a foot.

Some bust potential?

Forecast model consensus is low around the Twin Cities when it comes to possible snowfall totals. Check out the NAM model. It agrees on heavy snow in northwest Wisconsin but lays out a much lighter snowfall scenario just southeast of the Twin Cities.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS also suggests more snowfall variability around the greater Twin Cities area.

Bottom line

Expect mixed precipitation to change to snow Tuesday. The most favored hours for steadier heavier snow are afternoon through Tuesday night. Overall I think 3 to 6 inches is a good starting point for accumulations from southwest Minnesota, through the Twin Cities toward Duluth. Heavier snowfall up to a foot could fall in northwest Wisconsin.

There is more bust potential for snowfall totals near the Twin Cities with this system.

Be prepared for winter weather driving conditions Tuesday and especially Tuesday night.