Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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Here’s an update on our inbound storm system for Thursday and Friday. 

The latest forecast model trends suggest there may be downward pressure on snowfall totals compared to Wednesday’s early forecast model runs. This storm is unusually warm, and the lack of cold air immediately behind the system may hamper intensification and the ability to produce heavier snowfall in many areas. 

Still, expect a wintry mix to change to snow Thursday and Friday. Several inches is still likely, and this looks like a plowable, if not a major winter weather event. High winds will make travel very difficult in western Minnesota. 

Here’s the latest snowfall thinking from the Duluth, Minn., National Weather Service office.

NOAA’s Winter Storm Severity Index factors in weather parameters to assess impacts. This looks like a moderate impact event across much of eastern Minnesota. 

If you’ve ever driven even an hour west of the Twin Cities in a winter storm, you know how quickly winter driving conditions can crater. High winds with gusts to 50 mph will cause blowing snow and reduced visibility and near blizzard conditions in western Minnesota. 

It should be noted that a few models have eased off snowfall a bit. I’m still expecting a wide area of 3 to 7 inches across most of Minnesota, and that includes the Twin Cities area. Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km resolution model run from late Wednesday afternoon. Note the sharp snowfall cutoff north of Duluth.

Expect a wintry mix to turn to intermittent snowfall Thursday. Heavier steadier snow favors Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A mix of wintry precipitation changes to snow Thursday and Friday. The latest forecasts suggest slightly less snowfall from the winter storm than previously expected.

Christine T. Nguyen | MPR News 2020

NOAA

Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA NAM 3 km model snowfall output through Friday

Winter storm update: 3 to 7 inches likely for much of Minnesota by late Friday

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