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A major arctic outbreak is headed for Minnesota this weekend. The inbound air mass is likely to be the coldest air of winter for most of Minnesota. Temperatures have fallen as low as negative 35 in northern Minnesota this winter. The coldest in the Twin Cities so far is minus 5 on Christmas morning.

Thursday brings some mixed rain to snow favoring eastern Minnesota. The system will be organizing as it moves east. That means western Minnesota may see little if any accumulation. The best chance for accumulating snow favors eastern Minnesota. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GFS model shows the system winding up as it tracks from Colorado to Lake Michigan. 

The best chance for accumulating snow favors eastern Minnesota. Most forecast models place the Twin Cities right on the edge of accumulating snowfall.

In this solution, the northwest Twin Cities would see little snow. The best chance for 2 to 4 inches will be in the eastern and southeast Twin Cities. The best chance for 3 to 6 inches favors southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin. 

The Twin Cities rides the edge on this system. Again, the most likely some for plowable snow of 2 to 3 inches or more favors the southeast Twin Cities. 

It should be noted that any track shift southeast would mean less snow for the Twin Cities. Any shift northwest will bring more snow.

Polar vortex: Bitterly cold weekend ahead

A lobe of a split polar vortex pattern dives south into Minnesota this weekend. 

Double-digit below zero overnight lows and subzero highs will cover Minnesota this weekend. Sunday and Monday will likely be the coldest mornings. Temperatures of negative 15 to 20 below seem likely for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Temperatures of minus 30 to  minus 40 are likely in northern Minnesota. 

Here’s the European model temperature solution for Sunday morning.

NOAA’s GFS model is a few degrees colder.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A major Arctic outbreak is heading for Minnesota this weekend.

Twin Cities National Weather Service

NOAA via tropical tidbits

ECMWF via pivotal weather

Snowfall projection for the Twin Cities area

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 6 am Sunday February 7

NOAA GFS model temperature outlook for 6 am February 7

Polar vortex: Temperatures may hit minus 20 in the Twin Cities this weekend

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