Prompts winter weather advisories as cold air moves in Friday night

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A short but important severe weather update for you night owls or early risers Wednesday. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storm Prediction Center’s

 midnight update has elevated the severe risk across much of southern Minnesota, Iowa, and western Wisconsin to the second highest of the five weather severe risk categories. 

A moderate risk for severe storms now covers most of southeast Minnesota, northern Iowa, and part of western Wisconsin. An ehanced risk zone now covers the southeast Twin Cities, including Scott, Dakota, and southern Washington counties. A slight risk includes most of the Twin Cities including downtown Minneapolis and St. Paul.

Highest threat window: Late afternoon and evening 

The highest threat for severe storms favors the late afternoon and evening hours as the system blows warmer, unstable air with temperatures in the 60s into southern Minnesota. 

High temperature (51 degrees) and dew point (49 degrees) records for Dec. 15 could be broken in the Twin Cities and across southern Minnesota. 

NOAA’s GFS model pushes temperatures to 60 degrees in the far southner Twin Cities. 

The forecast wind field late Wednesday at about 18,000 feet above ground is about 150 mph. And it’s 80 mph just 5,000 feet above ground level. Severe thunderstorms can tap those winds and drive wind gusts in excess of 75 mph to ground level. 

 highlights the exceptional nature of forecast wind fields at various levels of the atmosphere above ground.

Tornado paramaters in weather maps suggest potential for both supercell and QLCS (squall line) tornadoes.  

 are associated with squall lines during severe thunderstorms outbreaks. Either type of tornado can produce winds over 100 mph and locaized severe damage. 

The powerful storm’s tight pressure gradient will produce 

 even before potentially severe storms develop. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible Wednesday afternoon across much of southern Minnesota. 

Be prepared for widespread high winds, and likely severe weather watches and warnings Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has elevated the severe risk to the second-highest category. 

NOAA

Paul Huttner | MPR News

NOAA/IEMBot

NOAA GFS temperature forecast for 6 pm Wednesday

Moderate risk: Unprecedented December severe weather outbreak likely late Wednesday

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