Lightning, thunder, and locally heavy rainfall this evening

Strong storms may dump locally heavy rainfall tonight.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model between 5 pm and 10 pm Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Radars are lighting up through this evening across Minnesota.

A slow-moving low-pressure system is sparking scattered rain and thunderstorms across our state. There is enough precipitable water in the air mass to pool into locally heavy rainfall zones within stronger cells.

NOAA’s HRRR model tracks a broken line of thunderstorms from central Minnesota through the greater Twin Cities area into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin between about 5 p.m. and 10 p.m. tonight.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model between 5 pm and 10 pm Wednesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

We’ve already seen flash flooding rainfall with this system such as the five inches of rain that fell in Cambridge Tuesday evening.

Overall storm motion looks to be slightly faster than Tuesday. But heavy rainfall is possible tonight in slower-moving cells.

NOAA’s WRF model cranks out some localized 2”+ totals favoring the western Twin Cities tonight.

NOAA WRF model
NOAA WRF model rainfall output through 1 am Friday.
NOAA via pivotal weather

Precisely where the heavy rain falls is simply a result of where the strongest storm clusters evolve this evening. But many of us could see at least .50” to 1” of rain this evening. Your rainfall results will likely vary. Such is the nature of summertime convective rainfall.

A few storms could pack hail and gusty winds tonight. But the most likely feature is heavy downpours, and a good dose of lightning and thunder.

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