A windy and bright Sunday; chilly start to the week

Ian could be a major hurricane this week

My wife and I enjoyed several days on the North Shore of Lake Superior this week. We were joined by my grandson and his parents.

There was minimal fall color right along the shore, but brilliant fall colors were sighted in the Sawtooth Mountains inland from Tofte and Lutsen.

Here’s a fall color update from Cook County:

When you look at fall color maps keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included. The maples can be peaking when the overall changeover to fall color is less than 50% in a given area.

Strong winds Sunday

There’s a big pressure difference between a high pressure system over the Rockies and a low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes, so we’ll have strong northwesterly winds today. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening.

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Rain chances?

There is a chance of scattered showers and an isolated t-storm in north-central and northeastern Minnesota plus parts of western Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday evening.

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Monday and Tuesday look rain-free in most of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be in the 60s across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Parts of northeastern Minnesota will have highs in the upper 50s. Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the upper 60s, but a stray 70 is possible in the metro. Our average Twin Cities high temp is 69 degrees this time of year.

Monday highs will be in the 60s in most areas, but there’ll be some 50s in north-central and northeastern Minnesota:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Low temps late Monday night and early Tuesday will be in the 30s in northern and central Minnesota plus parts of Wisconsin:

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Tuesday morning forecast lows
National Weather Service

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Wednesday morning lows in the 30s.

Back to high temps, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 60 on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by mid 60s Thursday and around 70 on Friday.

Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane

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Saturday night/Sunday morning satellite loop of Ian
NOAA

Tropical Storm Ian is expected to become a hurricane either Sunday night or early Monday, and Ian could become a major hurricane this week. A hurricane warning has been issued for western portions of Cuba. Ian’s forecast track takes it toward the the west coast and panhandle of Florida Wednesday and Thursday.

Here’s the latest update on Ian, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 ...IAN FORECAST TO BEGIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA WHERE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 79.8W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa, and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas. The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a similar forward speed is expected later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it reaches western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday night and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall: Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches. Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall may affect north Florida, the Florida panhandle and the southeast United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid week. Additional flooding and rises on area streams and rivers across northern Florida and parts of the southeast U.S. later this week cannot be ruled out, especially in central Florida given already saturated conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area Monday night and early Tuesday. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Cayman Islands Sunday night into Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and will spread to the Cayman Islands later today. Swells will then spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Monday and Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Here’s the forecast track of Ian, including the cone of uncertainty for the path of Ian’s center:

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Forecast track of Ian
NWS National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center will issue several updates on Ian today and through this coming week.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.