Updated severe weather outlook Sunday night into Monday

Strong winds and unusually warm temps are in the forecast for Sunday afternoon. Some areas will see periods of showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight. We have an update on all that, plus a fall color report and a look at the week ahead.

Almost summery

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 54 degrees on Oct. 23. Most of the Twin Cities metro area is expected to reach the upper 70s Sunday afternoon, with a stray 80 possible somewhere in the metro.

Sunday highs will rise well into the 70s across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and a few spots in southwestern and south-central Minnesota will top 80. Far northern Minnesota will see highs in the 60s.

Dew points will be in the 50s in most areas Sunday afternoon, and the dew point could be close to 60 degrees in the metro area by late Sunday afternoon.

The big picture

A low-pressure system was centered over northeastern Colorado Sunday morning. The low will move northeast, arriving in eastern South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon. The strengthening low-pressure system will bring strong winds to Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and evening.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common Sunday afternoon and evening. Some gusts over 40 mph are expected Sunday evening from the south metro into southern Minnesota, where a wind advisory begins Sunday evening:

Severe weather possible late Sunday, overnight

Some areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday evening and overnight into Monday.

That shower and thunderstorm chance could begin late Sunday afternoon in western and far southern Minnesota, then expand to include all of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night.  

A few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Sunday night and early Monday. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather (shaded yellow) during that time period in southwestern Minnesota, with a marginal risk (darker green) over much of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible in the marginal risk area, which includes the Twin Cities. The severe weather risk details on the severe weather graphic are from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office.

The Storm Prediction Center updates their severe weather outlook several times each day.

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

A few scattered showers and an isolated t-storm will be possible on Monday.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be cooler, ranging from 50s in western Minnesota to lower 70s in western Wisconsin:

The cooler air will spread eastward during the day. The Twin Cities could see a high in the upper 60s early Monday morning, followed by falling temps during the day, reaching the mid-50s by late Monday afternoon.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by mid-50s Thursday and Friday.

Fall color update

Some trees have dropped most of their leaves, but there are still pockets of good fall color in portions of southern and central Minnesota.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources fall color report for Minnesota State Parks and Trails looks like this:

The Wisconsin fall color report can be found here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.