Next storm brings more rain south and heavy snow and ice north

Winter storm conditions across northern Minnesota ahead

Snowfall projection for Minnesota
Snowfall projection for Minnesota.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Welcome to the 16th storm in about 19 weeks Minnesota. That’s how incessantly active our weather pattern has been for the past four-plus months going back to Dec. 1.

Our latest storm brings mostly rain to central and southern Minnesota, but it will produce another blast of April ice and heavy snow across northern Minnesota. Yes, it’s spring. But the weather maps don’t seem to observe our made-up seasons.

Winter storm watches north

It’s awkward to talk about “winter” storms as we move deeper into spring, but winter best describes the type of weather that will occur across the Northland Thursday and Friday.

Winter storm watches will likely be upgraded to warnings later Wednesday afternoon across most of northern Minnesota. Here’s the view from the Duluth National Weather Service office.

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Winter storm watch
Winter storm watch
Duluth National Weather Service

Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Bigfork, Hibbing, and Grand Rapids

416 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Koochiching, North St. Louis, North Itasca, Central St. Louis and South Itasca Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Bois Forte Band, Nett Lake, Lake Vermilion and, Deer Creek areas.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall amounts are expected to vary, with higher snow amounts and less icing most likely further northwest, especially in Koochiching County. Locally higher snowfall amounts to around a foot may be possible.

Here’s the view for the Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota from the Grand Forks, N.D., National Weather Service office.

Winter storm watch 2
Winter storm watch
Grand Forks, N.D., NWS office

Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Baudette, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin

520 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and wintry mix possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 or more inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

Overall snowfall across Minnesota will be the most significant north of a jagged line from Fargo, N.D., to Brainerd to Duluth. You can see from the map at the top of this post that more than a foot looks likely as you approach the Canadian border regions.

Ice will also fall with this storm across a good chunk of northern Minnesota.

ice accumulations 4
Potential ice accumulation
NOAA

Rain south

The Twin Cities picked up three-tenths (.3) of an inch of rainfall with Wednesday morning’s first storm wave. We’re getting a break with just scattered showers between low-pressure waves for most of the day, but another wave of rain arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the next rain wave developing Wednesday evening and moving northeast through Thursday. Note the transition to snow up north.

NOAA HRRR model
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Thursday.

Searching for springlike weather

Last week’s record warmth was a fleeting preview, but blustery weather will dominate through the upcoming weekend. Highs will be mostly in the 30s north and 40s south.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

Hang in there, Minnesota.