Wintry mix spreads across Minnesota

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Forecast models agree on dragging a slowly moving low-pressure system across the Upper Midwest this upcoming weekend. 

The system will have moisture to work with from the Gulf of Mexico. The only real questions surround precise rainfall timing and distribution of the heaviest rainfall totals. Some locations could pick up welcome multi-inch soaking rains this weekend.

Here’s a look at the inbound system and rainfall potential. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model picks up on the notion of a potentially soggy system tracking into the Upper Midwest this weekend.

You can see multiple waves of scattered rainfall rotating around the system as it tracks through our area. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Sunday. 

Forecast models are cranking out varying rainfall totals across Minnesota this weekend. That’s typical. Expect these precipitation forecasts to change as we move through this week. But the takeaway is that widespread rainfall is likely, and local multi-inch rainfall totals are possible with this system.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model has been cranking out several inches of rainfall for parts of Minnesota. Monday night’s run laid out as much as 3 inches across the Twin Cities area.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model suggests a more widespread inch of rain, with locally 2 inches or more across parts of central Minnesota and Iowa.

Of course, this system arrives on a weekend. But at this point in our deepening drought, I don’t think we have the luxury of being picky with rainfall timing.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A slowly moving storm may bring multiple rain waves next weekend. 

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output

Soaking rainfall chances growing by the weekend

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