Chilly now; balmy for November next week

Highs in the 50s and 60s return next week

Upper air forecast map for
Upper-air forecast map between Sunday and Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

Our blustery Thursday reminds us it is November in Minnesota.

But temperatures in the Twin Cities actually rose to 49 degrees Thursday. That’s 5 degrees warmer than average in a November that’s running 1.3 degrees warmer than average so far. And after a couple of chilly days ahead, we’re going to pile on the above-average degrees next week across Minnesota.

Friday brings less wind but chilly temperatures across Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday
NOAA

Warm dome aloft

The upper-air pattern across North America next week features a dome of high pressure aloft across the central United States.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model (see the map at the top of the post) shows the 500 millibar ridge building next week around 18,000 feet above ground level.

That ridge aloft translates into warmer-than-average air at ground level. Highs by Sunday will push back into the 50s across southern Minnesota, with 40s north.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

By Tuesday temperatures will reach 60 degrees from near the Twin Cities southward.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

The average high and low temperatures in the Twin Cities next Wednesday are 42 and 28 degrees. Thursday’s forecast models eased up slightly on temperatures for next week, but we’ll still be 10 to nearly 20 degrees warmer than average across Minnesota next week.

It’s remarkable to note, that we will likely stay above freezing even overnight next week in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. That’s highly unusual for mid-November.

Stay tuned.