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Our end-of-year retrospective on COVID-19 activity in Minnesota reveals a fourth year where thousands of Minnesotans ended up hospitalized and hundreds died due to the disease. As tragic as those numbers are, it is worth noting that both hospitalizations and deaths are down by more than 55 percent from the year prior.  

Number of COVID-19-related deaths per year in Minnesota

Since the pandemic really did not start in Minnesota until March 2020, it is perhaps worth noting that the 

 average number of COVID-19 hospital admissions is just under 1,000 so far this year, down 60 percent from the state’s peak monthly average of 2,464 in 2021. The monthly average number of deaths so far this year is 116, down even more dramatically — by 80 percent — from the peak monthly average of 592 in 2020 (March-December).  

Unfortunately, the number of both hospitalizations and deaths in Minnesota are trending up at the year’s end, with department of health data showing 800 COVID-19 hospital admissions during the first half of December and 169 COVID-19 deaths in November (complete data is not yet available for December). 

The recent uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations — both in intensive care units and regular non-ICU beds — are far below the peaks we have seen in previous years of the pandemic. But the recent number of COVID-related ICU admissions are the highest the state has seen all year. (Note that the most recent data point shown on the graph below may be subject to upward revision as the health department firms up its recent data.) 

Wastewater data finally shows a downturn in COVID circulation in much of the state 

Wastewater data analysis, which can detect increases in COVID-19 circulation before either hospitalizations or deaths, shows a decrease in COVID-19 levels after increasing steadily since early November. As of the week ending Dec. 20, 

the University of Minnesota’s Wastewater Surveillance Study

 shows COVID-19 levels in the state’s wastewater are down 12 percent from the week prior. The one caveat is that the most recent data points in the study have sometimes been revised upward in later updates. 

Change in COVID-19 levels measured in Minnesota's wastewater treatment plants

Even with this recent downturn, COVID-19 levels in wastewater are still up statewide by more than 50 percent since late November, including increases of more than 100 percent in the study’s Central region and nearly 300 percent in the South West. Fortunately, COVID-19 levels are down in the most recent measurements in both of these regions after recent high readings were notched on Dec. 13.

Trendline showing COVID-19 levels measured in Minnesota's wastewater treatment plants

The latest data from the state’s health department show that both Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza hospitalization rates remain up. Preliminary data for the week of Dec. 10 suggests that RSV may have leveled off, but that number may be revised upward as the health department receives more data over the next week. 

Recent hospitalization rates from respiratory viruses in the Twin Cities Metro

Young children are most susceptible to RSV. 

According to the Minnesota Department of Health

, the latest weekly hospitalization rate for newborn children through age four is right around 20 per 100,000. This is far below last year’s peak of 37 per 100,000, but rates are not falling just yet this year. 

Older adults are the group most susceptible to influenza. The latest weekly flu hospitalization rate for Minnesotans aged 65 and older is 11 per 100,000, far below last year’s peak rate for that group of 41 per 100,000. Flu activity has yet to taper off this season and may continue to grow over the next few weeks. 

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Craig Helmstetter

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2023 was the fourth year where thousands of Minnesotans ended up hospitalized and hundreds died due to COVID-19. As tragic as those numbers are, it is worth noting that both hospitalizations and deaths are down by more than 55 percent from the year prior.

Minnesota's COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths in 2023 less than half those in 2022

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