Prompts winter weather advisories as cold air moves in Friday night

MPR News helps you turn down the noise and build shared understanding. Turn up your support for this public resource and keep trusted journalism accessible to all. 

Turn Up Your Support

Minnesotans are living through the warmest winter of our lifetimes. 

It’s been so warm this winter that we’re in a race for the warmest winter ever recorded in Minnesota and the Twin Cities since records began in 1873.

I’ve been crunching our balmy winter temperature numbers so far. We’ve just lived through the 

 in Minnesota. December temperatures were 12.3 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. And December was nearly 16 degrees warmer than average in International Falls on the Canadian border! (15.8 degrees)

I’ve also been looking ahead at the most likely temperatures through the first part of February. The conclusion I reach is that we’re about on pace to challenge the warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) on record of 1877-78. 

It’s going to depend on temperatures in February. It will have to be one of the warmest Februarys on record to match 1877-78.

To sanity-check my observations and forecast, I checked in Wednesday with Kenny Blumenfeld at the Minnesota State Climatology Office. His data concurs that we’re in a race for the warmest meteorological winter on record in the Twin Cities and Minnesota. 

Kenny says robust state numbers are harder to come by for the late 1800s. 

Bottom line? The race for the warmest winter on record is neck and neck. But it will take a remarkably warm February to get there. 

I also asked Blumenfeld or his perspective on our supersized 

This will likely end up as one of the longest winter thaws on record for Minnesota. I wondered about how to talk about a January thaw that lasts into February. What’s the record for the longest January thaw that includes adjacent months of December and February? 

Thanks Kenny, but let’s hope this thaw doesn’t last into March!

Looking at forecast models again today, it looks likely our current thaw will last to at least Feb. 8. Our current thaw in the Twin Cities began on Jan. 22. So if my math (and forecast models) are right, that would make 18 straight days of above-freezing temperatures in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota. 

This would tie for the second longest “January thaw” on record. 

Forecast models continue to crank out gradually warming temperatures through next week. Highs will gradually rise this week and may approach 40 degrees by this weekend.

Next week looks even warmer. Highs in the 40s look increasingly likely next week. 

The European model has been hinting at 50 degrees by the weekend of February 3-4.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

It’s neck and neck for the warmest winter on record.

It's a race for the warmest winter on record for Minnesota

Go Deeper.

Like this?