Mild start this week gives way to a chance of snow

Accumulating snow possible Wednesday night across southern Minnesota

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between noon Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

It’s been a minute since I’ve used the “S” word.

The weather maps are driving a clipper through Iowa Wednesday night. That means the first chance of snow for many of us in southern Minnesota in a long while. The last measurable snow for the Twin Cities fell on Jan. 19 when we recorded a paltry one-tenth (.1) of an inch.

First, a couple more relatively mild days for February. Another surge of mild air is here.

Temperatures Monday afternoon
Temperatures Monday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

We’ve already hit 41 degrees in the Twin Cities as of this post time Monday afternoon.

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Temperatures Monday
Temperatures Monday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Federal Aviation Administration

Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler but still well above the average high of 27 degrees in the Twin Cities for Feb. 13.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

Wednesday brings one more mild day before a cooling trend later this week into the upcoming weekend.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Wednesday night snow chance

A clipper sailing through Iowa will likely produce snow across southern Minnesota Wednesday night. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System shows the system:

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between noon Wednesday and 6 a.m.Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The best chance for plowable snow favors either side of the Interstate 90 corridor in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.

NOAA GFS snowfall output
Global Forecast System model snowfall output
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The Twin Cities looks likely to ride the northern edge of this system with minor accumulation potential. We’ll update the track and likely snowfall zone with this system as it approaches.

Stay tuned.