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Snow develops Thursday into Thursday night with a larger weekend storm incoming

The weekend storm could bring heavier snow and rainfall into early next week

haz
A winter weather advisory goes into effect later in the day Thursday into Friday morning.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Updated 9:15 a.m.

Snow will develop west and expand east by Thursday evening and overnight. Friday will be mostly dry before more snow develops late Saturday into Sunday.

First of two systems arrives Thursday 

The first of two snow-producing systems arrives late Thursday. A winter weather advisory is posted for later in the day Thursday into Thursday night and early Friday for much of central and southeastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. 

haz
A winter weather advisory goes into effect later in the day Thursday into Friday morning
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Light snow will develop in western Minnesota and expand east through the day, reaching eastern Minnesota by evening. The snow will be a relatively quick shot in the overnight hours, wrapping up by early Friday.

thu-fri 9a
Forecast precipitation 1 p.m. Thursday through 9 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

A wide area of snowfall will occur across central and southeastern Minnesota primarily. 

MNsnow 6a
Forecast snowfall late Thursday into early Friday
National Weather Service

There is still some variation in the various forecast computer model scenarios for snowfall output. We will watch to see if some potentially heavier bands of 4 to 5, even 6 inch amounts are possible in central and southeastern Minnesota.

snow models TONIGHT
Various forecast model scenarios for Thursday night snowfall
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

While we have one eye on Thursday’s system, we have another on a bigger, potentially more aggressive storm that will start late Saturday and come in two waves into Tuesday. 

sat-tue 9a
Forecast precipitation 7 p.m. Saturday through 7 p.m. Tuesday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Complicating the second system will be warmer air arriving Monday, which will turn some snow to rain in portions of southern and southeastern Minnesota. This could have a big impact on snow totals and determining where the heaviest amounts will fall.

storm timeline weekend
Timeline of the storm and precipitation type this weekend into early next week
National Weather Service

Regardless of whether we see rain or not Monday into Tuesday, significant snow is still likely to fall. The probability of more than 6 inches (winter storm criteria) is likely for much of southern Minnesota.

snow PROB
Probability of more than 6 inches of snow Sunday into Tuesday
National Weather Service

While our forecast models vary on where the heaviest snow will fall, they all agree on significant snowfall totals.

Pictured below are forecasts for 24-hour snowfall totals from Sunday into early Monday, one of the heavier periods of snowfall. Keep in mind there will likely be additional rain and snow totals later Monday into Tuesday.

sun-mon snow models
Forecast model scenarios for Sunday into Monday snowfall potential. There will likely be additional snowfall Monday night into Tuesday.
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

If you’re looking for a return to spring temperatures, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model offers some hope by the end of next week. It’s an outlier right now, but pushes temperatures to near 60 degrees in southern Minnesota.

This will all depend on how much snow falls and where, however. You can see the variations in the temperatures based on this possibility already:

EUR high next FRI
Forecast highs potentially by next Friday, March 29
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via WeatherBELL Analytics
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