Minnesota reaches peak summer, plus a weekend forecast from Paul Huttner

CATHY: So did you know that we just hit the traditional middle of summer just a few days ago? It might feel like a relief to some that there is still plenty of summer left, though. MPR's chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner, is here to chat about what we can expect for the peak of the summer season across the state of Minnesota.

Hey, how are you?

PAUL HUTTNER: Hey. I'm good, Cathy. And this is a time of year when I always say to people, look, the best two months of weather of the year, arguably, are the next two months, right from this first week of August through the first week of October. It is normally beautiful here in Minnesota.

CATHY: Yes, and I'm hoping that that will stay the case, that we don't get so ridiculously hot. But it has been crunchy, in terms of a lack of rain. The soil's obviously still drying out. Where are when it comes to the drought right now?

PAUL HUTTNER: And this is interesting because one way to look at the drought is, like you say, what are the soils doing? And this week's crop report is interesting, and it gives some telltale signs. The topsoil, Cathy, around Minnesota this week reported as 25% very short and 43% short. So that's about 68% of the soils in Minnesota either short or very short.

And if you look at how that's affecting crops, 43% of corn and beans is in good to excellent condition, but 51% is fair to poor, so there's some stress in fields out there. And of course, we had the rainfall last weekend-- 1 to 3 inches in southwest Minnesota, and also upper on Moorhead. Yesterday, Dent, in Otter Tail County, got 3.85 inches of rain.

So the crop conditions are really county-by-county, field-by-field because of these localized rains that you and I have been talking about. So our next drought monitor comes out tomorrow. That's a big, broad overview of the state. I don't think it'll change much, but we might see some improvement in some of those areas in western Minnesota.

CATHY: Of course, we are dealing with the hottest year, globally, on record, right? So what are the odds of 2023 being the hottest year, globally?

PAUL HUTTNER: About two or three months ago, some of the climate scientists were saying it was around 50%. Now it's 98% because July came in as the warmest month ever. Globally, John Wanamaker mentioned Copernicus, a European climate service. That's what they're predicting.

And it looks like this year will go down as a top-- now, here's what that means in context, right? The last eight years are the warmest years on record, globally. So that is off the charts for the statistics of that happening, and this year looks like it'll be the warmest. The oceans' record warmth-- off the charts in the North Atlantic.

Scientists are looking at these anomalies, Cathy, because they're so far out of the norms. They're so far into record territory that-- is this just a blip? Is this the El Niño that looks like it could be a Super El Niño, or have we reached a tipping point here? I don't think we know yet. But it's alarming to look at it, and, back to your original question, it does look like almost certainty that 2023 will go down as the warmest year on record, globally.

CATHY: Let's talk about Canada. Oh my goodness. We had a chance to talk to a Minnesota DNR forester who's been fighting the fires in Canada. Wow, she had some harrowing tales to tell. The numbers from Canada, in terms of the number of acres that have burned-- will this just keep going on until the snow falls?

PAUL HUTTNER: It will. I think it will in most of these areas. It's interesting because Canada-- one of those places that I think they don't put out a lot of their fires. A lot of people argue, well, if you don't put out your fires, it would be easier. Well, that's not the truth here. 33 million acres burned, OK? Just for some perspective there, Cathy, that's two times the previous record, already, from 1995. It is six times the annual average that burns in Canada, in terms of acreage.

And they've had over, right now, 1,100 fires this year. And we've talked about this before. The climate-change connection there is pretty clear and pretty simple. A hotter and drier climate means more fires. It means more intense fire behavior. Pretty well documented by the US Forest Service and Climate Central that three times the amount of large fires in the US West since 1970.

So it's not complicated. Climate's getting hotter and drier, and things are burning. That's what's happening in Canada this year.

CATHY: This forester has said that they've had a huge outbreak of these bugs that attack spruce trees. Trees die, and then, of course, once a fire starts, it just races right through.

Say, rain-- rain would be nice to talk about here. And actually, we really haven't had any severe, a lot of severe weather this year. Any chance of any bumpy weather?

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah. Today there's a marginal risk for a few severe storms. We've got a couple of garden-variety thunderstorms right now, Cathy-- Stillwater, Lake Elmo, Oakdale-- and there's another batch west, around Litchfield, and just a weak front coming through. So a marginal risk for the Twin Cities, Central Minnesota. Tonight we'll see a couple of spotty thunderstorms. I think most of them will stay below severe limits, but doesn't look widespread rain. Next best chance-- Thursday night into Friday morning, maybe again Friday afternoon and evening.

CATHY: And before you go, it's on the Climate Cast.

PAUL HUTTNER: Yeah, environmental justice zones. Minnesota actually passed a new law that's going to cause reviews and a permitting process for pollution analysis, climate analysis for projects that are going in. So we'll talk about that, what they're doing, and what it means. That's tomorrow on Climate Cast during All Things Considered.

CATHY: All right, I appreciate it. I hope you have a good rest of the day.

PAUL HUTTNER: You, too. Thanks, Cathy.

CATHY: That's our chief meteorologist, Paul Huttner. You can listen to Paul, Tom Crann every afternoon on All Things Considered.