Cooler but still well above normal this week

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Hey Minnesota. We’re living through the longest January thaw ever recorded in the Twin Cities and across most of central Minnesota. 

Wednesday will be the 24th straight day above the freezing mark in the Twin Cities. Our current January thaw began on Jan. 22. The Minnesota State Climatology Office keeps track of January thaws even if part of the thaw occurs in December or February. 

We’ve already blown past the previous January thaw record of 21 days set in 2006-07.

 from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

 about our first inbound snow system in nearly four weeks due to arrive Wednesday into Wednesday night. 

The latest 18Z forecast model runs continue the slight northward shift of this system. That means the Twin Cities could get a little more snow. 

Here’s the 18Z NAM 3 km resolution model output between noon Wednesday and 2 a.m. Thursday:

Temperatures will rise to around 40 degrees in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Wednesday before the snow arrives. A few rain showers may fall before the change to snow. 

Snow will likely arrive in the Twin Cities in the late afternoon and pick up Wednesday evening. 

Snow will be falling on warm ground, so we may lose an inch or so of accumulation to melting. Most forecast models suggest little snow north of the Twin Cities, with an inch or two for much of the Twin Cities. Heavier totals of 3 to 4 inches look most likely in the southern Twin Cities. 

There are signs this system could produce some heavier bands of snow that may locally drop 5 inches or more. Right now, the favored zone for that is west and south of the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM’s 3 km model is among those cranking out heaver snowfall potential. It should be noted this model often displays a northward bias. 

Let’s see what the model runs crank out later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before the snow flies.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

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Paul Huttner

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Snow is likely across most of southern Minnesota Wednesday and Wednesday night. 

Longest January thaw on record gives way to snow Wednesday

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