Control of the Minnesota House is up for grabs this fall. Here are 14 races to watch

All 134 Minnesota House seats are on the ballot this fall, with the results set to determine whether the Democrats maintain a hold on the chamber or lose the majority to the GOP. But the major parties have their focus centered on a slim list of competitive districts.

The results could determine what new taxes or tax cuts take hold in Minnesota as well as where lawmakers prioritize state funding for schools, public safety, health care programs and more in next year’s budget-writing session.

While most districts feature head-to-head battles between candidates, just a fraction are viewed as competitive. Those contests in politically purple districts have drawn the most money, time and attention from the major political parties and independent organizations that can put forward resources that can boost or oppose candidates in those races.

Here’s a look at some of the races generating the most attention and campaign spending ahead of Election Day.

Five races where the DFL is looking to make new inroads:

In addition to holding their advantage in the Minnesota House, Democrats are looking to make gains in the suburbs and in a district just outside of Duluth. There are three districts where incumbent Republicans edged out Democrats in 2022 and two others where GOP representatives are leaving their seats.

House District 3B — Democrats are hoping that a name well-known in northern Minnesotan will help them win back a legislative seat for a swath of towns that hug the Duluth metro and run far into St. Louis County. Republican Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar ended the term of long-serving state Rep. Mary Murphy, a Democrat, in 2022, flipping the seat to GOP control. Just 33 votes separated the two. Zeleznikar is trying to fend off a challenge from Democrat Mark Munger, a former judge and the nephew of longtime lawmaker Willard Munger. The race generated more than $335,000 in campaign spending from political parties and independent groups ahead of the latest filing deadline in mid-September.

House District 36A — Rep. Elliott Engen, a first-term Republican, is looking to hold his seat against a challenge from DFLer Janelle Calhoun in a district spanning parts of North Oaks, Circle Pines, Lino Lakes and Centerville. Independent fundraising groups and the political parties have funneled more than $142,000 into the race. Democrat Heather Gustafson picked up the District 36 Senate seat in 2022 and DFL Rep. Brion Curran represents the other half of the Senate district. 

House District 41A — Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in the district that encompasses eastern suburbs Lake Elmo, Afton, Lakeland, Grant and part of Cottage Grove, among others. Republican Rep. Mark Wiens is stepping down after a single term. Democratic state Sen. Judy Seeberger won her seat representing the district and an adjacent house district in 2022. Republican Wayne Johnson and Democrat Lucia Wroblewski are vying for the seat. The race has netted more than $417,000 from groups supporting and opposing the candidates.

House District 41B — The DFL is also looking to pick up the other half of the Senate district where Rep. Shane Hudella, a Republican, won in 2022. Seeberger, a Democrat, represents the Senate district. Hudella is not seeking reelection, setting up a contest between Republican Tom Dippel and Democrat Jen Fox. The district includes parts of Hastings and Cottage Grove, as well as Nihinger and Denmark Townships. Political parties and outside groups spent almost $278,000 in the race as of the latest filing deadline.

House District 45A - Near the shores of Lake Minnetonka, Republican Rep. Andrew Myers is trying to keep hold of his suburban House seat. The first-term lawmaker is facing Democrat Tracey Breazeale in a district that has recently flipped back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. The region is also getting special attention this election cycle because voters will cast ballots in a winner-takes-the-majority special election for a state Senate seat. Democrat Kelly Morrison previously held the District 45 Senate seat but stepped down to run for Congress. Independent expenditure groups and political parties have spent more than $273,000 in the House 45A contest.

Eight seats that Republicans are high on:

Minnesota Republicans are hoping to hold their current seats in the House and make a net gain of four seats needed to flip control of the chamber. They see the best path to that outcome in Greater Minnesota and outer-ring suburbs, where they hope former President Donald Trump can bring a down-ballot boost.

House District 7B — Three-term Democratic Rep. Dave Lislegard is stepping down from his seat, setting up a contest in the Iron Range district between Democrat Lorrie Janatopoulos and Republican Cal Warwas. Republicans see the seat as a pickup opportunity because the other half of the Senate district is represented by Republican Rep. Spencer Igo and GOP Sen. Robert Farnsworth, who prevailed in a 2022 race. More than $69,000 in independent expenditure funds have flowed into the contest so far. It’s one of the few seats in the state that a Democrat won despite Republicans faring better in statewide and federal races.

House District 14B — Republicans are aiming to unseat Democratic Rep. Dan Wolgamott in the district that covers parts of St. Cloud and Sauk Rapids, as well as Haven and Minden Townships. Republican Sue Ek is challenging Wolgamott in the district that has been routinely close in recent years. Voters are known to split their tickets, based on the checkerboard pattern of results. Nearly $258,000 from outside groups had been spent in the race as of the latest reporting deadline. Neighboring House District 14A, with Republican Rep. Bernie Perryman on the ballot is also getting some attention.

House District 18A — In south central Minnesota, DFL Rep. Jeff Brand is in a competitive race with Republican Erica Schwartz in the district that has gone back and forth politically in recent years. Brand first won the seat in 2018 but lost a reelection bid in 2020 when Trump was on the ticket. He reclaimed the seat in 2022. Republicans hope the Trump effect will help Schwartz flip the seat this year. The Senate district is represented by Democratic Sen. Nick Frentz. The race has generated almost $294,000 in independent campaign spending as of the latest filing deadline.

House District 32B — First-term Democratic Rep. Matt Norris faces a challenge from Republican Alex Moe in the north suburban district near Blaine. Republicans see it as a fertile pick-up chance given that Norris won by a little more than 400 votes in 2022. The other half of the Senate district is represented by Republican Rep. Nolan West and GOP Sen. Michael Kreun holds the District 32 Senate seat. Almost $254,000 has been spent in the race.

House District 35A — Third-term Democratic Rep. Zack Stephenson is in another hotly contested race for a district that spans parts of Anoka and Coon Rapids. Last time, Stephenson held off a fellow lawmaker after new district boundaries were set. This time, his opponent is Republican Josh Jungling. The race generated the highest amount of political party and independent expenditure group spending as of the latest filing deadline – at $432,000. Republicans are high on the suburban district in part because the broader Senate district is represented by Sen. Jim Abeler, a Republican. 

House District 35B — On the flip side of the Senate district, Republicans also hope to pick up a House seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Jerry Newton, who eeked out a win last time in one of the closest races on the map. Democrat Kari Rehrauer, who lost to Abeler in the 2022 Senate race, is facing off against Republican Jim Pape in the Coon Rapids-area House race. The race has generated the second highest amount of campaign and independent expenditure spending at just over $425,000.

House District 48B — First-term Democratic Rep. Lucy Rehm is running for reelection in the district including parts of Chaska and Chanhassen. The Republican candidate is Caleb Steffenhagen. Republican Sen. Julia Coleman represents the broader Senate district and Republican Rep. Jim Nash currently holds the seat representing District 48A. More than $412,000 in outside activity was documented in the contest as of last month.

House District 54A — Republicans are also aiming to unseat Democratic Rep. Brad Tabke as he runs for a third term. Tabke first won in the Shakopee area district in 2018, but lost a subsequent bid in 2020 – when Trump was on the ticket. He succeeded in his last run for office in 2022. Republican Aaron Paul is hoping to edge out Tabke in his latest run in the district that has bounced between DFL and GOP representation. Almost $259,000 in non-candidate spending has been funneled into the race from independent expenditure groups and political parties.

One more race to watch

There are about 20 legislative seats certain to have a new occupant after November because the incumbent decided against running for reelection, are running for something else or fell to defeat in the August primary. But most of those are safe territory for their party. One is rising above the rest.

House District 26A — Both parties are vying for the Winona area seat previously held by longtime Democratic Rep. Gene Pelowski, who wasn’t shy about breaking with his party over the years on social issues. Pelowski is retiring after this year, creating a closely watched open-seat race. Democrat Sarah Kruger faces Republican Aaron Repinski in the contest. Republican Sen. Jeremy Miller holds the District 26 seat in the Senate and Rep. Greg Davids, also a Republican, represents District 26B.

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