Northern lights forecast: Intense auroras possible in Minnesota Friday night, Saturday morning
There’s a good chance Minnesota will be part of an intense northern lights show Friday night and into Saturday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Center has issued its first G4 level geomagnetic storm watch since 2005.
A Kp index of 8.33 is forecast for Friday night. That’s a measurement used to predict solar weather activity; it ranges from 0 to 9, with higher numbers indicating a better chance for auroras.
Peak activity is expected from 1-4 a.m. Saturday. MPR News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard says this means the auroras could be visible even into southern Minnesota and beyond.
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“Not just around Minnesota, but.. most of the United States could see it tonight,” Sundgaard said. “This is really an intense level of activity heading towards Earth.”
It’s best to get away from city lights for the clearest views, but there is no need to go north this time. The show should be intense statewide if everything aligns with the earth’s magnetic field.
Clouds from the daylight hours Friday should dissipate quickly, Sundgaard said, making for mostly clear skies for most of the state Friday night.
The sun is in an active phase of its 11-year solar cycle. Sun spot AR3664 has sent several coronal mass ejections flying towards earth in the last few days.
The sun spot is so large, it’s visible from earth without any special equipment other than your leftover eclipse viewing glasses — never look at the sun with the naked eye.
“We’re talking some major stuff here,” Sundgaard said. “Three or four different coronal mass ejections from a big sunspot have been flying towards Earth.”
If you want to try and catch the view, here are some tips from MPR News editor Andrew Krueger and MPR News photojournalist Ben Hovland.
Scout ahead of time to find your spot
Find a location far from city lights and with a clear view to the north to make your chances of seeing the northern lights better. A view from a southern shore of a lake is a great option, but farm fields and pastures work, too.
“The darker the night sky, the better the chance of seeing the northern lights,” said Krueger. “If it’s a really strong northern lights display, you might be able to see it from the Twin Cities, but you’ll get a much better view if you can get away from all that light pollution.”
The same applies for people in Duluth, St. Cloud, Rochester or any other city across Minnesota — getting away from city lights will increase your odds of seeing the northern lights.
Use a trusted source for alerts on aurora conditions
Both Krueger and Hovland suggest monitoring a few different websites to check on conditions:
Astro Bob blog by former Duluth News Tribune photo editor and Minnesota astronomy expert Bob King
University of Alaska Fairbanks' Geophysical Institute's aurora forecast
There also are groups of aurora-watchers on social media, who post updates on northern lights sightings from across the Midwest and Great Lakes region.
If you’re planning photos, bring a tripod (and other equipment)
Hovland shared a previous aurora-chasing session in 2022, and gave a breakdown on his equipment, trip notes and tips.
To truly capture the northern lights in a photo, you’ll need a slower exposure time. That means you’ll need to mount your camera on a tripod, and you’ll need a shutter speed measured in seconds rather than fractions of a second.
In 2022, Hovland noted he tried a longer exposure, but not too long.
“For the July aurora display, I used the following settings: lens set to 16mm, aperture at f/2.8, ISO 6400, and a 6” shutter speed,” Hovland wrote. “Generally, I set my exposure to keep the shutter speed as short as possible. This means opening up the aperture and raising the ISO, or digital sensitivity.“
Don’t forget to prepare for the weather, and be ready to stay out for an extended period of time — maybe throw the camp chair in the trunk.
Get out there!
You won’t see anything with a roof overhead, but that’s easier said than done when it’s late or cold outside.
If you stay up late — or get up early — look to the sky and you may be rewarded with a truly spectacular sight.